河流水质管理决策支持系统应用研究

【作者】 叶巧文；

【导师】 张新政；

【作者基本信息】 广东工业大学 ， 控制理论与控制工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 决策支持系统是以信息技术为手段，应用决策科学及有关学科的理论和方法，针对某一类型的半结构化和非结构化的决策问题，通过提供背景材料、协助明确问题、修改完善模型、进行分析比较等方式，为管理者作出正确决策提供帮助的人机交互信息系统。 近年来，随着东江流域社会经济的迅速发展，排入东江的污染物逐年增加，建立东江水质管理决策支持系统是实现该地区经济建设与环境保护协调发展的迫切需要。本文试图建立东江水质预测和评估模型，实施该流域水质管理决策支持系统，从而提高该流域水质管理与决策的水平，更好地保护和利用东江水资源，为其他地区的水质管理支持系统的开发与应用提供有益的参考。 本课题的主要研究内容是应用基于L-M算法的BP神经网络模型进行水质预测，并结合东江的实测数据进行了初步探讨，给出仿真结果。采用几种常用的水质评价方法进行效果对比，在对灰色聚类方法进行详细分析的基础上，应用等斜率灰色聚类决策方法，对东江惠州段部分断面的水质数据进行评价计算。使用C++ Builder5和SQL Server2000等开发工具进行系统的软件开发，编写了相关的水质查询与水质评价程序。用户可以利用此系统实现基本的水质监测数据的查询和输出、水质评价分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Decision Support System (DSS) is a human- machine interactive information system, which apply the decision science theory and method to settle the consequential or half- consequential decision problem. It can help the manager to do the correct decision through providing the background material, helping to definitude the issue, amending the model, and so on.In this recent year, with the rapid development of the social economy along the DongJiang drainage area, the contamination drain into the DongJiang River is increasing rapidly year after year. It’s very urgently to establish the water quality management decision Support System of the DongJiang drainage area. The author tries to establish the DongJiang River forecast and evaluation model to give the reference for decision Support System of other area.The main study content of this paper is using BP-NN model which based on the L-M method to predict the water quality of DongJiang River, and giving the related algorithms and simulation results. Some methods of evaluation water quality are studied, which are often used in water quality management. An example of estimating DongJiang cross-section is brought forward, which is using the isogradient obscure clustering method. Software is developed with some tools such as C++ Builder5 and SQL Server2000. Database management sub-system, which can query and export data from database of servers. And a water quality model-base is established. In this system, user can compute the parameters of water quality and analyze their changes.更多还原