【作者】 陈闽江；

【导师】 丁明；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着太阳电池和电力电子技术的不断进步，太阳能发电技术得到长足发展。发展光伏发电技术成为太阳能利用的主流。光伏转换技术被广泛认为是最有前途的再生能源技术，可以提供足够的能源供应，同时降低温室气体的排放。世界各国相继加大力度进行光伏研发项目和市场开拓。 太阳能发电和常规能源发电不同，它具有随机不确定性，而这种时变性又增加了系统的不稳定因素。这使得人们希望对其一段时间内的工作状况有所把握。本文的重点是运用概率抽样描述这种不确定性，采用蒙特卡罗序贯仿真对光伏发电各环节状态进行概率模拟，并计算相关可靠性指标。首先研究了各种影响太阳一次能源变化的因素，考虑因素之间的相互作用，采用按时间序贯仿真各小时太阳电池的出力。接着本文运用蒙特卡罗序贯的方法，模拟了光伏电站内部各元件的工作及故障检修的顺序，提出了阵列组件的检修判据，并仿真计算了独立光伏系统工作的各项可靠性指标。最后，进行了光伏并网系统研究，考虑不同的线路及保护随机故障动作，和多变的系统运行方式，结合配电网进行相关的可靠性经济性指标计算。 在理论研究的基础上，本文开发完成了“光伏发电系统可靠性分析软件”，可做进一步研究之用。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of the solar cell and power electronics, photovoltaic system has grown up and become the main way on using the solar energy. Photovoltaic energy conversion is widely considered as one of the more promising renewable energy technologies which has the potential to contribute significantly to a sustainable energy supply and which may help to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason there is a growing support from governments for photovoltaic R&D programs and market introduction schemes.Stochastic nature is the main difference between photovoltaic system and conventional energy. Because the time dependence characteristics of photovoltaic system enhance the instability of system, it is desired to grasp the work status at a given time-interval. This paper focuses attention on using probabilistic simulation to describe this stochastic nature, and adopts the Sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to simulate each element status in photovoltaic system, and calculating responded reliability indices. Firstly, this paper considers the interaction among factors, which may have effect on the solar cell power output , the solar cell output power every hour is simulated in time sequence. And then, the paper simulates the work status and the failure status of each component in photovoltaic station, and puts forward the criterion to repair photovoltaic array, and calculates reliability indices of the stand-alone PV system. At last grid-connected PV system has also been studied, different random faults in line and protection which bring the change of operating patterns have been taken account for, indices of reliability and economics have been computed in distribution system.On the basis of algorithms study, a software package named "Photovoltaic system reliability analysis planning" is developed, which can be used for further research.更多还原