【作者】 秦丹；

【导师】 龙炳清； 刘长根；

【作者基本信息】 四川师范大学 ， 环境科学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 西藏是我国五大牧区之一，畜牧业在国民经济中占有重要地位。通过对西藏自治区6个地区1个地级市草原生态环境调查研究，以人为活动为中心，以系统中物质流和能量流为主导，以社会经济可持续发展为目的，结合以水热条件为主导的包括气候、地貌、土壤、植被等草地环境条件的地域分布规律，以自然地理特征为主体，将西藏草地划分雅鲁藏布江中上游河谷草原生态系统、藏南高山湖盆草原生态系统、藏北高原湖盆草原生态系统等6类主要生态系统，对其生态环境和畜牧业发展状态做了详细描述。这对高原生态系统的划分有利于对高原生态系统良性循环的研究。西藏草原生态系统恶化的生态学实质是系统内物质和能量流的不平衡，其基本原因是西藏牧区人口的增长和牲畜存栏数的大幅增长，使物质和能量流动、转化极大的失衡，加之牧民习惯使用动物粪便和灌丛类植物作燃料、草原鼠类及害虫恶性繁殖造成物质和能量的低效率和浪费性循环和流动所致。 通过对西藏畜牧业发展状况的调查，用关联度分析了西藏畜牧业经济与西藏国民经济之间的关联关系。经计算得出二者之间的关联度为0.6829。由此可以看出西藏畜牧业在西藏国民经济中占有较高的关联度，但其关联性有弱化的趋势，即牧业经济在整个国民经济中的地位正在削弱。运用灰色系统将灰色预测模型GM-DM对偶映射长期预测模型与新陈代谢GM(1，1)模型结合，建立了2003～2006年西藏畜牧业经济发展的时间响应预测模型，对西藏畜牧业2003～2006年经济发展进行了预测。从以上预测结果可以看出，用GM-DM对偶映射长期预测模型与新陈代谢GM(1，1)模型相结合预测出的结果，误差较小(最大的误差值仅为3.88%)，因此其预测值有较高的可信度。分析预测结果不难发现，西藏牧业经济的发展速度有明显减弱的趋势，历史数据和预测数据均表明西藏牧业经济的发展符合S规律，这是草本植物生产量决定畜牧环境容量，畜牧环境容量决定牧业经济环境容量的客观规律所致。 西藏草原生态经济的可持续发展涉及到自然条件和社会条件。自然条件大多是不可控制的，即使少部分可控，其控制限度是非常有限的。社会条件绝大多数是可以控制的，针对西藏的具体情况，其中最主要的可控因子为科技、资金、物质和观念。根据可控因子建立西藏草原生态与经济可持续发展模型。 根据西藏草原生态与经济可持续发展模型，西藏草原生态经济可持续发展的基本对策是:通过草原产权制度改革，使牧民从传统的“零和博弈”的“囚徒困境”中走出，实现合作博弈一一余和博弈;调整牧区的产业结构，将传统牧业改造成生态牧业，同时大力发展生态旅游业和生态工业;加强西藏草原生态环境恶化防治及生态恢复。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tibet is one of five major pastoral area of our country, the animal husbandry occupies the important position in national economy. Through making investigations to the grassland ecological environment of a prefecture-level city of 6 areas of Tibet Autonomous Region, regarding artificial activity as the centre, the material flows and flows and takes with energy as the leading factor in the system, regard social economy sustainable development as object, combine the region including environmental conditions of meadow , such as climate , ground form , soil , vegetation ,etc. taking hot condition of water as leading factor and is distributed the law , rely mainly on natural geographical feature, divide Brahmaputra on the meadow of Tibet and visit the grassland ecosystem of river valley middly and upperly, hide the south alpine lake basin grassland ecosystem , hide north plateau fake basin grassland ecosystem ,etc. 6 kinds of main ecosystems, have done its ecological environment and state of development of animal husbandry in detail and described. The division of the ecosystem of this pair of plateaus is favorable to the study on plateau ecosystem benign cycle. The ecology essence that the grassland ecosystem of Tibet worsens is the disequilibrium that the material and energy flow in the system, its basic reason is growth of pastoral area population in Tibet and considerable growth of livestock’s amount of livestock on hand, make the material and energy flow, it is out-of-balance to transform the great one, in addition the herdsman is used to using the animal excrement and urine and shrub forest plant to make fuel, grassland mouse and pest malignant to is it cause material and poor efficiency and circulation of wasting etc. of energy and is it cause to flow to breed.Through the survey of state of development of Tibet animal husbandry, have analyzed related relation between Tibet animal husbandry economy and Tibet national economy with related degree. Related degree is 0.6829 through what has been calculated out between the two. This shows that the Tibet animal husbandry occupies higher related degree in Tibet national economy, but its has the tendency to weaken relatedly, namely the position in the whole national economy of animal husbandry’s economy is being weakened. Use grey to predict antithesis , GM-DM shine upon long- term forecast model and metabolism GM (1,1) model combine system, the time for economic development of Tibet animal husbandry responded the model of predicting after setting up 2003-2006, have predicted the economic development of 2003-2006 of the Tibet animal husbandry. Predict from the above result can find out , shine upon with GM-DM antithesis long-term forecast model and metabolism GM (1,1) model combine together result produced to predict, error than little (whether most heavy error value 3.88% only), so its predicted value has higher credibility. Analyzed that predicts that it is not difficult for the result to find , the development speed of the economy of Tibet animal husbandry has the tendency to obviously weaken, historical data and predicting that the data indicate that the development of the economy of Tibet animal husbandry accords with S law , this is that the amount of production of herb determines the environmental capacity of the animal husbandry, the environmental capacity of the animal husbandry determines the objective law of the environmental capacity of animal husbandry’s economy causes.The sustainable development of the ecological economy in the grassland of Tibet involves natural conditions and social condition. Natural conditions are not mostly controllable, even it is controlled to lack some, its limit of control is very limited. The social condition overwhelming majority can be controlled, direct against the concrete conditions of Tibet, among them the main controllable factor is science and technology, fund, material and idea. Set up the grassland ecology of Tibet and economic sustainable development model according to the controllable factor.According to e更多还原