【作者】 牛燕利；

【导师】 闫维明；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 结构工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 摘 要 大量震害资料表明：供水管网抵御地震的能力是十分脆弱的，而且它的破坏将引起严重的次生灾害。因此，本文从我国城市抗震防灾工作对基础性研究的迫切需要出发，结合我国城市供水管网系统的实际情况，在综合分析了现有国内外相关研究的基础上，建立了基于地理信息系统（GIS）的供水管网动态震害预测模型。 本文综合分析了地下供水管道的地震破坏特征和反应机理，引入了以接头破坏作为主要的破坏模式，并探讨了管土间的相互作用和滑移作用等问题；介绍了根据震害调查数据回归的统计经验法和基于可靠性理论的理论分析法，对地下管道的可靠性进行了研究；介绍了利用蒙特卡罗法和网络图论中的广度优先搜索法判定网络连通可靠度的方法，对供水管网的连通可靠性进行了研究；考虑到震害预测方法中的许多参数是随时间变化的，应用灰色理论和概率论，建立了基于GIS 的供水管网动态震害预测模型。在上述研究的基础上，本文还用 C 语言编制了城市供水管网动态震害预测的通用程序。最后，以某城市供水管网实际工程为例，应用上述通用程序对其震害进行了预测。计算结果与震害基本吻合，验证了本文建立的基于 GIS 的供水管网动态震害预测模型和编制的通用程序。更多还原

【Abstract】 Abstract Many earthquake disasters have demonstrated that a water supply pipenetwork in a city may be vulnerable to earthquake and the secondarydisasters are more serious. So , it is necessary to build GIS-based dynamicseismic disaster prediction to urban water supply pipe network for theneed of earthquake hazard mitigation. This paper presents some methodsfor solving these problems, which is based on the fact in our country. The seismic disasters features and behavior mechanisms of the buriedwater supply pipeline are analyzed by synthesis and the breakage of thepipe joints caused by seismic wave propagation as main disasters mode isled into. The soil-pipe interaction, and the soil-pipe slippage arediscussed. Statistical experience method resulted from earthquakeinvestigations and theoretical methods based on reliability theory areintroduced. The reliability of buried pipeline is researched. The methodfor estimate connective reliability of network by means of Monte Carlesimulation technique and Breadth First Search method is introduced. Theconnective reliability of water supply pipe network is researched.Considering many factors of seismic disasters prediction are availableas temporal change, the GIS-based dynamic seismic disaster prediction tourban water supply pipe network by means of Grey Theory and ProbabilityTheory has been created. These presented methods have been programmed byC language. The model and the program have been tested in practice ofdynamic prediction to seismic disaster of water supply pipe network incertain city.更多还原