【作者】 郭予琦；

【导师】 王宏广；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 作物栽培学与耕作学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 中国农业进入新阶段，区域布局调整与粮食总量平衡成为国家宏观决策的重要问题。粮食主产区农业结构调整不仅要考虑农民收入，还要考虑粮食安全。本文分析粮食主产区河南省陕县农业结构调整及其对农民收入和粮食产量的影响；设计三种种植业结构优化方案；为陕县农业结构调整和经济发展提供规划决策。 陕县农业结构现状：农业以种植业为主，属于我国传统农区。2001年陕县农业产值占总产值的份额高于全国平均水平17.7％；2002年种植业产值占农业产值的份额为74.38％，高于全国平均水平19.8％；养殖业发展缓慢，2002年其产值比重低于全国19.9％；二、三产业发展缓慢，2001年非农产业产值比重低于全国平均水平18.4％。 陕县农业结构调整对粮食生产和农民收入产生明显影响：1)近lO年(1993—2002年)陕县蔬菜产值占种植业的比重增加了14％，果品产值比重增加了10.3％；2)农业结构调整使粮食总产量近15年(1987—2001)减少了48.6％，粮食安全问题再次引起关注；3)农业结构调整有利于增加农民收入；近10年农民家庭经营收入增加了33％。 我国粮食主产区面临的共同问题是，如何在增加收入的同时确保粮食增产。针对这一问题，本文设计三种陕县种植业结构优化方案。 粮食安全型方案；以粮食产量为目标，到2010年人均粮食产量717公斤，为国家贡献商品粮1.93亿公斤；2002年至2010年，粮食总产量年增长率为0.8％；农民人均种植业纯收益1277元。这种方案需要肥料纯量1286万公斤，物质费用1.22亿元。 粮牧结合型方案；以收入为目标，人均种植业收益903元；2010年实现饲料粮总产量6800万公斤，转化成动物性产品，仅牧业人均收入达6546元。人均粮食产量399公斤，可以为国家提供商品粮7220万公斤。这种方案需要肥料纯量578万公斤，物质费用8702万元。 粮菜型优化方案；2010年农民人均种植业纯收益2507元。人均粮食占有量348公斤／人，可以为国家提供商品粮5294万公斤。需要肥料纯量1621万公斤，物质费用1.51亿元。 为真正做好农民增收、粮食增产的统一，建议对粮食主产区给予一定的政策与资金的支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Adjusting the rural economic structure and ensuring stable cereal production is a major task at the new stage as regard to the agriculture in our country. The problem of grain security is arised in the area where the grain is produced overwhelmingly in the process of adjusting the agricultural structure. An example of Shanxian county in Henan province is given to research the effect of the adjustment in agriculrural structure on the farmers’ income and cereal production in the dissertation in order to make a strategic decision.At present, ShanXian county belong to the traditional rural area. The proportion agricultural value is higher 17.7 percent than average level of all round our country in 2001.The proportion of fanning system value is 74.38% percent, which is higher 12.48 percent than that of Henan province and 19.8 percent than average level of all round our county. The proportion of poultry value is lower 13.4 percent than that of Henan Province and 19.9 percent than average level of our country.The secondary and the third industry develops very slowly too.The readjustment of agricultural structure has effect on cereal prodution and the farmers’ income : 1)Farming system is readjusted very quickly in the past ten years.The proportion of vegetable value is incerased by 14 percent,fruit by 10.3%; 2)The grain production is decreased by 48.6% percent from 1987 to 2002. The per capita grain yield is 108 kilogram in 2002. Attention to the problem of cereal security is paid once more. 3)The farmers’ income is increased by 33% in process pf adjusting of the agricultural structure from 1993 to 2002.The paper is based on the predict model that include three kinds of schema by way of liner planning. Each of the optimization model is put forward to achieve the economic and social profits .The first schema is the grain security model, by which 193 million kilogram of commodity will be supplied and the per capita grain yield is 717 kilogram in 2010.In this model 12.86 million kilogram net fertilizer is needed and the cost will reach 122 million yuan. The rate of increase in cereal production is 0.8 percent .The second model is the grain-feedstuff model, by which 68 million kilogram grain for fodder and 72.2 million kilogram of commodity will be supplied and the peasants’ income is most.. In this model 5.78 million kilogram net fertilizer is needed and the cost will reach 87.02 million yuan. The farmers’ income from the farming system will reach 2507 yuan by way of the grain-vegetable model that is the third model. In this model 16.21 million kilogram net fertilizer is needed and the cost will reach 150 million yuan .The grain product advantage must be taken in the process of optimizing the farming structure .The raising and the secondary or the third industry may be developed by the growth of the primary industry. The sustained and stable increase in farmers’ income will be acquired. The fund must be given and the policy must be formulated to support the region in order that the fanners’ income is increased and the cereal production is secured.更多还原