【作者】 徐春霞；

【导师】 高聚林； 刘克礼；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 作物栽培学与耕作学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 通过对内蒙古河套平原黄灌区农业生产现状的大量实地调查，并在定性与定量分析总结的基础上，采用投入产出的方法，对隶属该地区的五原县、杭锦后旗、临河市、乌拉特前旗能流、物流进行了分析；用灰色关联度的方法对影响这些地区农业生产结构的驱动因子进行分析；并运用线性规划的方法，以土地、资金等为约束条件，针对不同地区构建农业生产结构调整优化模型，提出了调整方案策略。具体研究结果为：⒈农田生态系统总投能、总产出能及总产出能、总投入能之比均为增加趋势，说明系统的能效逐渐提高；无机能投入量占总投能的比值较大，均在70%以上，其中化肥的投入量最大，有机能占总投能的比值较小，不足30%，农田生态系统中有机能与无机能的比例失调，农田生态系统的能量自给能力较差。这些地区能量产投比均大于1，说明整个农田生态系统为能量产出系统。农田生态系统氮、磷、钾素物质循环中氮、磷为正平衡，钾为负平衡，农田生态系统物质循环不尽合理。⒉进一步应用灰色关联度法分析该地区农业生产结构。①种植业生产要素对农业总产值的影响：五原县、杭锦后旗、临河市农用化肥对农业总产值的影响最大，乌拉特前旗农业机械总动力对农业总产值的影响最大。②畜牧业对农业总产值的影响：杭锦后旗、临河市羊存栏数对农业总产值的影响最大，五原县在畜牧业发展方面处于较低水平，牛及大牲畜存栏数是影响其农业生产总值的主要因素，其次是养羊业；乌拉特前旗草地面积相对其它地区较大，人均草地面积是影响农业生产总值的主要因素。③种植业对畜牧业产值的影响：粮食总产是影响五原县、杭锦后旗、临河市畜牧业产值的主要因素，同时这三个旗县的种植业产值对畜牧业产值的影响最小，粮食总产对这三个地区的畜牧业产值形成正向影响作用；乌拉特前旗种植业产值对畜牧业产值的正向影响最大。④农村产业结构对农业总产值的影响：五原县、临河市第一产业产值对人均GDP的影响最大，对人均GDP的贡献额最大；杭锦后旗、乌拉特前旗第三产业产值对人均GDP的影响最大。⒊应用线性规划的方法，对该地区2002年农业生产结构进行规划调整，调整方案为：各旗县市增加奶牛的饲养，减少肉牛的饲养；加强养羊业的发展，降低养猪数；在保证主要粮食作物小麦产量的前提下增加玉米的种植面积；五原县、乌拉特前旗、杭锦后旗要增加经济作物葵花的种植面积，临河市、杭锦后旗增加蔬菜的种植面积。五原县、杭锦后旗、乌拉特前旗、临河市优化调整后的农业纯收益分别是实际农业纯收益的3.56、3.26、5.42、4.18倍。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on lots of investigations in Inner Mongolia Yellow river irrigated region, and analyzing the present agricultural production structure by qualitative analysis and mathematic method. The author analyzed the flow of energy and material by the method of input-output, analyzed the motive factors of agricultural production structure by the Grey relating degree method, and established optimum model and adjusting strategy by taking the fund and lands the liner programming method as controlled conditions.1.Total input and output energy, and ratio of total output to input energy all appeared increasing trends in farm ecosystem, which indicated that the efficiency of the system energy increased gradually. Ratio of inorganic input to total input energy was higher, over 70%, the fertilizer was the most of all, the ratio of organic to total input energy was lower, under 30 %, the ratio of organic to inorganic input energy was out of balance in the farm eco-system, which indicated the farm ecosystem self-sufficient ability was low. The ratio of total output to input energy was all above 1 showed that the farm ecosystem was the output energy system. The nitrogen and phosphorus circulation were positive equilibrium, the potassium was negative in farm ecosystem, thus, the farm ecosystem material cycle was unreasonable.2.Analyzing the agricultural production structure in this region by Grey relating degree method. In plant, the largest effect factor to the total output value of agricultural was fertilizer in Wuyuan county, Hangjinhou county and Linhe city; in Wulate county, the largest effect factor was the power of machinery for agriculture. In animal husbandry, the largest effect factor to the total output value of agricultural was the amount of sheep livestock on hand in Hangjinhou county and Linhe city; in Wuyuan county, the cow livestock inventories was the main effect factor, the second was the sheep industry; the grassland in Wulate county was the largest. Per capital grassland area was the largest factor of all in this region. The affection of plant to animal husbandry output value showed that cereal output was the positive effect to animal husbandry output value at Wuyuan county, Hangjinhou county and Linhe city, plant value was the positive effect to animal husbandry output value at Wuyuan county. Analyzing countryside industry structure to per capital GDP, the first industry output value was the largest effect to per capital GDP at Wuyuan county and Linhe city, the third industry output value was the largest effect to per capital GDP at Hangjinhou county and Wulate county.3.According to the agricultural production structure at 2002 in this region, by using the liner <WP=4>programming, the optimum adjusting strategy was put forward. Should increase the amount of the milk-cow and decrease the amount of oxen. Strengthening the development of sheep industry and decreasing the pigs. Increasing the plant area of maize with the guarantee of the yield of wheat. Increasing the plant area of sunflower in Wuyuan county, Hangjinhou county and Wulate county. In Linhe city and Hangjinhou county, increasing the plant area of vegetable. After optimum adjustment, the ratio of agricultural net profits to actual net profits were 3.56,3.26,5.42,4.18 in Wuyuan county, Hangjinhou county Wulate county and Linhe city.更多还原