中国投资与经济增长关系的实证研究

【作者】 王彦卿；

【导师】 任碧云；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经学院 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 在经济运行中，投资具有先导作用，是一国经济增长的第一推动力，因此，所有经济学家和政府决策部门都十分重视对投资运行的研究，但任何国家、地区和企业也都将投资放在经济活动的重要地位。自1996年我国经济顺利实现“软着陆”以来，国民经济运行状况良好，GDP平稳增长。但是，商品严重供过于求，失业人口不断增多，社会显失公平和“三农问题”等始终没能得到解决，而且伴随着市场经济体制改革的不断深入和市场运行机制的逐步完善，这些矛盾和问题越来越显现出来，并成为经济体制进一步改革和市场机制正常运转的重要制约因素。为了解决这些矛盾和问题，国家政府已经采取了不少策略和措施。虽然我们知道，这些问题的解决，仅仅依赖投资是难以奏效的，或者说其中某些矛盾和问题，正是过去多年来重投资、重积累、轻消费的累积结果。但无论如何，投资的作用是消费所不能代替的；实施消费启动，也绝不是不要投资。只要我们对投资规模、投资结构等问题给予高度重视，在合理控制投资规模的前提下，优化投资结构，投资对经济运行的促进作用就能充分的发挥出来，投资就能够推动经济增长并促进经济运行的良性循环。本文采用实证分析与比较分析的方法，收集自改革开放以来我国宏观经济运行的主要相关数据，建立数据模型，并分阶段进行比较分析来阐述投资与经济增长的关系，同时对投资进行结构性分析，分别比较政府投资、民间投资与经济增长的关系，找出存在的问题并给出对策建议。本论文共分为四章，十一个小节：第一章是本文的理论基础，主要是根据国内外关于投资、经济增长以及二者之间关系的研究的一个综述，通过各种观点的比较分别给出具体的定义，并最终得出投资是经济增长的决定性力量。第二章进入本文的实证分析阶段，主要是根据历史数据得出中国的经济增长和世界其他国家类似，在很大程度上依赖于投资的增长。在这一章里，分别采用图表数据比较分析和回归模型分析的方法进行论证并得出结论，我国只有保持高速、合理的投资增长速度，才能保证经济的稳定增长。第三章对投资进行结构性分析。通过对政府投资和民间投资对比分析，在肯<WP=4>定二者在经济增长中发挥巨大作用的同时，分别指出了不足和存在的问题。第四章是本文的最后一章，也是本文最具创新的一章。在这一章里将针对上一章所存在的问题给出相应的对策建议，希望能够起到抛砖引玉的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the first important impetus of one nation’s economic growth, investment acts as the forerunner in economic development. So either economists or policymakers in government always attach importance in this field, so as every country, every region, and every enterprise. Since 1996, when it properly gains so-called soft-landing gently, our national economy has been growing very well in general. But in the other hand, we can’t be blind to the fact of over-supplied commodities, more and more lay-offs, unbalanced social distribution system and so-called “three peasants problem”. All these issues have already become the main obstacle in economic system reform in advance and in regular operation of market mechanism. The central government has already adopted several policies and plans to solve these problems. We can’t settle all these difficulties just relying on investment, because which come from paying more attention to investment, to accumulation, and ignoring consuming. Nevertheless, the role of investment can’t be substituted by consumption. Promoting consumption doesn’t mean letting investment alone. If only we attach more importance to investment structure and investment scale, investment can play a very good role to pushing economy forward, and to promoting economy developing in good cycle in the condition of investment quantity in proper control. In this case, I choose the regression research about the relation between Chinese investment and economical growth as my thesis for the degree of master.There are four chapters in this thesis.Chapter one is the theory foundation of this thesis. According to the research of investment, economical growth and their relationship domestically and abroad, I get the result that investment is the key factor of economical growth.Chapter two is the regression analysis. I get the result that Chinese economical growth depends on the growth of investment from the research of the data before. Chapter three is the structure analysis of investment. Investment is divided into two parts---government investment and non-government investment. The two parts <WP=6>are compared with similar analysis methods to get the result. After the research of the former chapters, Chapter four analysis the problems in the course of domestic economical growth and give some advise for the government.更多还原