【作者】 周宇；

【导师】 金维兴；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本文认为项目风险管理就是一个在信息不断进入的多阶段活动中进行优化决策的过程，其关键在于对风险应对方案的选择。本文采用规范研究的方法，以系统理论为指导，将期权定价理论与项目风险管理理论相结合，分析工程项目实施阶段的管理过程，在与相关文献对比的基础上分析工程项目实施阶段活动。在建立分析框架的基础上重点分析风险条件下的应对方案的选择这一决策问题。 由于应对方案的实施会改变项目结果的分布，简单地采用项目原折现率对期望值折现来对应对方案进行评价已不再适用。通过对应对方案的性质的分析并结合实物期权的理论，本文认为风险应对方案应该看作是一种衍生于项目的实物期权，应该使用期权定价方法对其投入进行衡量。在对实物期权法的计算过程进行分析的基础上，指出由于未考虑活动引起的成本变化而无法实现其所计算的项目价值增加。在分析期权定价原理的基础上，提出以单位风险价格作为应对方案的评价指标，并证明在某些特定的市场条件下，应用实物期权的分析方法确实可以发现一个最优的应对方案。 本文对指导工程项目的投资者／管理者如何在项目实施阶段建立一个风险管理体系并正确作出风险决策有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper regards project risk management as a procedure of optimism and decision, in which information will come out gradually in the multistage construction. The key to the risk management is how to select the risk response plan. Directed by the system theory and combined the theory of option pricing and project risk management, this paper adopts criterion method to analyze the management and activity in the stage of engineering project implement on the base of comparison to relative documents. This paper emphatically argues the choice of response plans under the condition of risks according to the established analysis frame.These forecasts are hypotheses abstract from the similar project performed before, whether they are actual or not will hugely affect the success of project The implement stage means project period from the location to product whose target is transform the plan to real and mark the aims. The implement stage occupies the most period of project, has huge work, consume the most resource. What is worth to mind is that the implement stage is a process not only to form the real propriety but also product information, for example, the knowledge of field status and the capability of contractor can only be obtained form implement. So in order to mark the target, the manager must test the hypotheses and use the new information assess the status of influence element, choose the best response planaccording to the condition.This paper has value in instructing the project investor/manager in how to establish a risk management configuration and making decision under risk condition in the implement stage of construction project.更多还原