【作者】 邢燕；

【导师】 牛荻涛；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 结构工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 地震灾害是世界上普遍存在且破坏严重的自然灾害之一。在役结构在长期使用过程中，由于环境等因素的影响，必将产生一定程度的损伤，并使结构的抗震性能产生退化。为科学预测未来地震造成的破坏并合理估计其造成的损失，应该以在役结构为对象，这样才符合地震时结构的实际情况。因此，研究在役结构在未来地震中的经济损失和人员伤亡估计，对于减震防灾更具实际意义。 随着现代抗震防灾技术的进一步提高，迫切需要对地震损失的主要因素(地震危险性、结构易损性和社会经济状况)进行风险分析，进而进行地震损失预测。首先，本文将在役结构抗震评估地震作用和锈蚀构件的恢复力模型引入到震害预测中，从而提出在役钢筋混凝土结构基于可靠度理论的震害预测方法，为在役结构的损失估计奠定了基础；第二，以全概率公式为基础，建立了未来地震损失的概率预测模型；第三，将地震损失分为经济损失和人员伤亡两大类，又将经济损失分为直接经济损失和间接经济损失，详细论述了房屋建筑和生命线工程的直接经济损失计算模型；假定震后生产能力恢复符合直线关系，建立了停产减产损失的计算模型；利用投入产出法，建立了产业关联损失的估计模型；引入投资影子价格的概念，简述了投资溢价损失的计算方法；第四，通过引入综合折现系数，提出了考虑货币时间价值的经济损失评估模型；最后，对以往国内外在地震人员伤亡评估方面的研究进行了评述，基于人员伤亡状态函数的动态评估方法对唐山地震进行了人员伤亡估计，并与唐山地震的实际情况作了对比分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Earthquake is a kind of ubiquitous disasters which usually cause catastrophic loss. The seismic performance of existing structures would degrade due to circumstance and other reasons. In order to evaluate earthquake loss exactly, economic loss and casualty of existing structures caused by earthquake must be studied.With the improvement of earthquake disaster reduction technology, hazard analysis on major factor of earthquake loss (seismic hazard, vulnerability, economic status) and loss prediction are be required urgently. First, in view of the earthquake action for assessment of existing structures in re-service term, hysteretic model of corroded members is introduced to earthquake damage prediction based on reliability theory. Accordingly earthquake damage prediction of existing RC structures is proposed to lay the foundation of loss evaluation. Secondly, grounded on total probability formula, probability prediction model of future earthquake loss is constructed. Thirdly, seismic loss is divided into economic loss and casualty. Moreover economic loss is separated into direct loss and indirect loss. Direct economic loss of buildings and lifeline engineering is introduced in detail. Supposed that post-earthquake rehibilitation accords with linearity, loss model due to stop and reduction of output is proposed. The loss due to the linkage of the sectors is evaluated by using input-output model. Cost of investment premium is introduced. Fourthly, inflation and deflation are considered by synthetical discount coefficient. Finally, research on casualty home and outside is reviewed. Based on the state-function of casualty, the dynamic method for assessing seismic casualties is introduced. Using this method, seismic casualties of Tangshan earthquake are reevaluated and the results are compared with the actual investigation.更多还原