浅析中国对外贸易商品结构及其对经济发展的影响

【作者】 于春萍；

【导师】 黄晓玲；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 国际贸易， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 在目前我国外贸总量和规模迅猛发展的形势下，外贸结构问题成为当前不少经济学家重点关注的问题。本文从有关对外贸易结构的理论回顾入手，运用最新统计数据分析了中国自改革开放以来的近24年来对外贸易商品结构发展的轨迹及目前的现状。在分析中，先将进出口商品分为初级产品和工业制成品两大类，并在此基础上按照国际贸易标准分类标准SITC进行更进一步的细分，分析了各类具体商品的发展趋势和现状。同时，对外贸易商品结构与产业结构调整之间也存在深层次的联系，从而使得外贸结构对我国经济发展的影响不仅表现在对经济总量的静态效应上，更表现在对产业结构调整的动态效应上，除对此进行理论方面的机制分析之外，文中的实证分析也从数字化的角度证明了这种静态及动态的影响，即通过建立一个简单的计量经济模型，运用SPSS软件分析了各类进出口商品对GDP增长的作用及对三次产业比重的影响，并将得出的实证分析结果与中国目前的外贸结构现状进行比较，探讨得出这种结果的原因与必然性，以找出外贸结构调整的努力方向。文章的最后在前面现状分析与实证研究的基础上，根据目前中国外贸结构发展中存在的问题，有针对性地提出了符合中国国情的外贸结构调整的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development in china’s total volume of foreign trade, the foreign trade mix has now become the focal point for many economists. This article starts from the review of the theories about foreign trade mix, use the latest statistics to make an analysis of china’s development orbit of its foreign trade mix in the past 24 years since its opening to the outside world, and also its current situation. During the analysis, we categorize the imports and exports generally as primary products and manufactured goods, and make further detailed classification according to SITC. Based on these classifications, we make the analysis about the development trend and the current situation of each specific sort of goods. Meanwhile foreign trade mix also have deep relationship with industrial structure adjustment, thus make it no only have static effects on china’s total GDP, but also effects industrial structure adjustment dynamically. Besides theoretical analysis, the demonstration results also provide a very persuasive proof for both the static and the dynamic effects. In this article, we set up a simple econometric model, use the latest available statistics, with the help of the software SPSS to get the results of the relationship between foreign trade mix and the development of GDP, and also the relationship of foreign trade mix and industrial structure adjustment. In this session, we also make explanation about the results with an attempt to find the striving direction of china’s foreign trade structure adjustment. On the foundation of the previous analysis of the current situation and the demonstration results, contraposing the problems exsiting in china’s foreign trade development, in the last part of the article, the author propose some countermeasures for china’s foreign trade mix adjustment.更多还原