【作者】 刘猛；

【导师】 程金明；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 热能工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 建立发电侧电力市场是中国电力工业商业化运营的重要一步。 论文研究了电力市场环境下基于边际电价预测的独立发电厂竞价上网策略问题。通过采用神经网络方法预测全网短期边际电价，建立了基于实时成本分析的最优报价模型，提出了应用博弈论的的报价策略，取得了较好的预期效果 。在理论研究的基础上，结合工程实际，对竞价上网辅助决策系统进行了整体规划，最后给出了一个工程实现方案，利用Visual C# 初步开发了独立发电厂竞价上网辅助决策系统。 本文利用山东电力市场模拟运行数据对所建立的模型和算法进行了仿真。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is an important step to establish the electric power market at the generating side in the commercialization of Chinese electric power market. This paper is about the strategies based on the marginal price prediction for independent power plants to connect to the national network by price competition in the context of electricity market. By using ANN to predict the short-term marginal price of the whole network, an optimal quote model based on real-time cost analysis is established and a game-theory quote strategy is brought forward and a good effect is achieved. In combination with engineering practice, an integrated programming is conducted of quoting auxiliary decision-making system and an engineering implementation scheme is proposed based on the theory study. Finally, power plants pricing competition computer auxiliary decision-making system is developed initially using programming language Visual C#. A simulation is performed of the established model and algorithm with the simulated operational data of Shandong electricity market in this paper.更多还原