【作者】 侯云青；

【导师】 黄振平；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本论文以广西红水河龙滩水电站为例，在第一篇中采用洪水过程线法计算了给定设计频率为0.01％、0.1％、0.2％和1％的坝址设计洪水，并利用合成流量法计算了相应设计频率的入库设计洪水。根据计算成果对该库不同时段的坝址设计洪水值和入库设计洪水值进行比较分析。第二篇中选择龙滩坝址以上流域的四个站，通过建立多维自回归模型对其日流量进行随机模拟，然后对模型和模拟生成的洪水系列进行仿真效果检验。结果表明在此流域利用此多维自回归模型进行随机模拟是合理的。 我们传统的水文频率计算方法一般都是假定总体服从P-Ⅲ型分布，然后采用适线法根据样本估计参数，进而推求设计值。然而，由此求得的设计值，其期望概率远远大于设计标准。这是我国水利工程频繁发生水文意义上破坏的主要原因之一。采用计算频率概念和方法是解决这个问题的重要途径之一。本文第三篇讨论了基于期望概率概念推求各种总体相应于1％及0.1％的设计值的方法，并且得到不同样本容量的Cs和计算频率的相关图，分析其变化规律，为理论研究及生产应用作一些初步探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, we use the dates of Long-tan water power station on Hong-shui River in Guang-xi province. In the first part ,we compute the site design flood of given design frequency (0.01%. 0.1%. 0.2% and 1%) using the design flood hydrograph .Then we get the design reservoir inflow flood of the same design frequency by the resultant discharge method .According to the computing value we compare the site design flood and design reservoir inflow flood of different time interval. In the second part, we choose four stations on the basin which up the Long-tan dam-site, and estimate a multidimensional auto regression model to model the daily discharge .Then test the model and the simulate effect of the modified flood series. The result indicate that using this multidimensional auto regression model on the basin to stochastic simulate the daily discharge is rational.The tradition hydrology frequency computation method is supposed that the universe is following the P-III distribution. Using the method of curve-fitting to estimate parameters according samples, and then get the design value. However the design value getting from this method which expectation frequency is larger than the design normal. This is one of the main reasons that the hydraulic engineering works in our country always have been broken in hydrology mean. To study the conception and method of calculation frequency is one of the most ways to solve the problem. The third part in this article has discussed the method which is based on the expectation frequency and use which we get the design value of 1% and 0.1% for some universes. And we also get the correlation diagram of Cs and calculation frequency of different sample sizes. Then we analyze the variation rule to get the primary discussion for the theory study and production.更多还原