中国虚拟经济风险管理初探

【作者】 郑纯雄；

【导师】 景桂兰；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 经济学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 论文运用现代经济分析工具，对我国虚拟经济风险进行系统考察，并在借鉴国际虚拟经济风险监管经验基础上，构建了一个监管我国虚拟经济风险框架。论文共分成五部分。第一部分（第一章）在界定虚拟经济内涵的同时，着重考察了其发生发展演变规律，提示了其区别于实体经济的六个特性：（1）高隐蔽性；（2）不稳定性；（3）高流动性；（4）高风险性；（5）寄生性；（6）周期性。在此基础上，引出了虚拟经济风险概念。第二部分（第二章）首先考察我国虚拟经济风险现状，认识到金融体系风险和资本市场风险是目前我国虚拟经济面临的主要风险。接着分析：虚拟经济的发展背离实体经济时，会阻碍实体经济发展甚至对其带来较大的负面影响和破坏性损害。因此，我们需要认真研究虚拟经济的运动和发展规律，尽早防范并消除其消极影响。第三部分（第三章）分析了虚拟经济风险形成的诱因。从虚拟经济与实体经济基本关系、虚拟经济体系、市场机制三个方面进行了详细考察。首先，从虚拟经济与实体经济基本关系因素看，主要是：（1）实体经济系统结构失调；（2）虚拟经济系统与实体经济系统内在关系失衡。其次，从虚拟经济体系因素看，主要是：虚拟经济体系僵化落后的管理体制。最后，从市场因素方面看，主要是：（1）市场信心丧失，产生“信任危机”；（2）国际虚拟经济风险“传染”。第四部分（第四章）考察了虚拟经济风险管理的国际经验，明确了虚拟经济风险监管的历史趋势，看到了差距。第五部分（第五、六章）根据我国实际情况，构建了一个监管我国虚拟经济风险框架。该框架由两个部分组成：第一部分，建立我国虚拟经济系统风险的预警机制。首先，构造一套科学的预警先行指标体系。 <WP=4>然后，建立一个我国虚拟经济风险预警度量模型并进行了实证分析。最后，应用这个模型对目前我国虚拟经济风险状况进行了评估。结论是：当前我国还未达到虚拟经济系统风险的“触发点”，在短期内，不会发生虚拟经济系统风险；也不会引发金融危机。但是要警惕虚拟经济风险的不断上升。为此，就必须监管我国虚拟经济风险，使之不断下降，在可控安全范围之内。第二部分，提出了监管我国虚拟经济系统风险“两步走”的对策建议。第一步，降低我国虚拟经济系统性风险。具体从虚拟经济与实体经济基本关系、虚拟经济体系、市场机制三个方面进行分析论证：虚拟经济与实体经济基本关系方面的主要论点有：（1）实体经济的结构调整与优化；（2）协调宏观经济中虚拟资产与实物资产的平衡。虚拟经济体系方面的主要论点有：（1）完善虚拟经济体系的管理体制：建立健全虚拟经济法律法规体系，实现“依法治业”；建立健全虚拟经济监管职能体系；增强虚拟经济运行信息的透明度；（2）提高虚拟经济体系中虚拟资产的风险管理水平。市场因素方面来说，主要是：（1）实行灵活的汇率政策；（2）加强资本流动管理；（3）积极推进虚拟经济监管国际合作第二步，建立我国虚拟经济系统风险化解机制。在采取有效措施降低我国虚拟经济系统风险的基础上，还需要警惕来自市场方面虚拟经济风险冲击。我以为，对此有以下三种化解办法：（1）市场机制的基础调节；（2）法律和政策约束；（3）强行临时管制。论文创新点：建立了一个我国虚拟经济系统风险预警度量模型，并运用这个模型对我国虚拟经济风险的现状进行了评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 The thesis, by using modern economic analysis tools, studies our country’s fictitious economic risk systematically and structures one supervisory frame of our country’s fictitious economic risk on the basis of referring supervisory experience of the international fictitious economic risk. The thesis is divided into five parts in all.First part (chapter one) studies the law of fictitious economy emphatically that takes place and evolves while defining fictitious economy, reveals its six characteristics, which are different from real economy: (1) of disguise (2) of instability (3) of high mobility (4) of high risk (5) of parasitism (6) of periodicity. On this basis, draws the fictitious economic risk concept.Second part (chapter two) investigates our country’s fictitious economic risk in current situation at first, realizes that the risk of the financial system and capital market risk are the main risks that the fictitious economy of our country faces at present. Then analyzes, when the development of fictitious economy deviates from real economy, it will hinder the development of real economy, even bring great negative effect and destructive damage on it. So, we need to study hard the law that fictitious economy moves and develops, take precautions against and avoid its negative influence as soon as possible.The third part (chapter three) analyzes the inducement that the fictitious economic risk forms, investigates it in detail from three respects of basic relation of fictitious economy and real economy, fictitious economy system, market mechanism.First of all, by the look of basic relation factor of fictitious economy and real economy, mainly: (1) the structure of real economy system is distorted (2) the systematic relation of fictitious economy and real economy is out-of-balance.Secondly, by the look of fictitious economy system factor, mainly: management system that the fictitious economy system is rigid and backward.Finally, by the look of market factor, mainly: (1) the confidence of market is lost, produce "the trust crisis" (2) international fictitious economy risk is "infected ".The fourth part (chapter four) investigates the international experience of fictitious economic risk management, defines the historical trend that the fictitious economic risk is supervised, see the difference. The fifth part (the fifth, sixth chapter) structures one frame that supervises our country’s fictitious economy risk according to the actual conditions of our country. This frame is made up of two parts:The first part, set up the early warning mechanism of the fictitious economy systematic risk of our country.First of all, construct one early warning of scientific index system that goes ahead of the rest. <WP=6>Then, establish our country’s fictitious economic risk early warning and measure model and analyze the real example. Finally, use this model to evaluate our country’s fictitious economic risk state at present.The conclusion is: Our country has not reached " the critical point " of the fictitious economy systematic risk yet at present and the fictitious economy systematic risk will not break out in a short time. Our country will not cause the financial crisis either. But should watch out for the constant rising of the fictitious economic risk. For this reason, must supervise our country’s fictitious economic risk and make its constant decline until the controllable safe state. The second part, propose the countermeasure and suggestion that " two steps on foot " supervises the fictitious economy systematic risk of our country. The first step, reduce the fictitious economy systematic risk of our country, analyze and prove from three respects concretely that the basic relation of fictitious economy and real economy, the system of fictitious economy, market mechanism:The main argument of basic relation of fictitious economy and real economy have: (1) Structural adjustment and optimization of real economy (2) Pay close attention to the balance of fictitious assets and physical assets of macro econo更多还原