【作者】 孙文堂；

【导师】 苗春生；

【作者基本信息】 南京气象学院 ， 气象学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本文根据国家气象局制定的第三次农业气候区划工作方案提出的目标任务，利用地理信息系统(GIS)及气候资源信息，以内蒙古乌盟为例进行了专题性农业气候区划和风险区划，对江苏省主要气象灾害进行了风险评估和分析。 内蒙古乌兰察布盟地区，位于内蒙古中部，是典型的雨养农业区。该区是内蒙古自治区马铃薯集中产区之一，也是我国主要的马铃薯种植和商品暑生产基地。然而该地区气候条件复杂多变，生态环境脆弱，并不是所有的旗县都适宜马铃薯生产。为了充分而合理的利用自然气候资源，本文依托地理信息系统(GIS)，以该地区为例，对马铃薯做了多项自然资源空间统计分析，确定了马铃薯种植的气候区划指标，并从马铃薯历年粮食产量单产偏离趋势产量的波动副值百分率着手，定义了反映乌盟马铃薯产量风险水平的风险指标。然后利用小网格资源推算法，建立模型，实现了基本气候资源分布的细化。借助CITY STARGIS的二次开发功能，用Visual C++编制模型，制作了马铃薯气候资源区划和种植风险程度区划的专题地图，并分区进行了评述。 江苏省位于我国大陆东部，地处长江、淮河下游，在亚热带季风气候的影响下，是我国自然灾害出现较多的省份之一。因此，本文以该地区为例，选用影响该省主要气象灾害的定量指标，从灾害出现频率以及对农业生产带来的风险出发，采用合理的灾害风险评估指标，借助于地理信息技术GIS的空间分析方法，以风险指数为区划指标，划分风险等级，分季节对该省的主要气象灾害干旱、连阴雨、雨涝的严重程度进行了评估和分析，获得了GIS系统支持下的灾害风险区划专题地图。 本文从事的工作体现出第三次区划全新的内容、产品和特色。为政府相关部门进行分区分类指导农业生产，发挥区域气候优势，提高农业资源开发的计划性和科学性；为广大农村因地制宜地安排农业生产，趋利避害减轻气候灾害的损失，提高资源开发的总体效益也具有一定意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper presents a means of evaluating and analysing agricultural climate resource and weather disaster in the county WulanCabu and Jiangsu Province based on GIS technique and climate resource information. The indicators of climate and risk which includes fail and lost risks for potato growing in the county WulanCabu, located in the middle of Inner-Mongolia area, are given according to the spatial statistic results of multi-natural resources in the county. Meanwhile a deriving method of natural resources distribution with small-scale grids is applied on all cases chosen here. Using CITYSTAR 3.0, the agricultural climate districts and the harvest risk districts are drawn and shown in geographical maps. The district maps can be provided to the Department of agricultural planting and planning and the Department of agricultural insurance to help them in district choosing. Jiangsu Province lies in the east of China and is in the downriver area of the Changjiang River and the Huaihe River. Affected by the subtropical monsoon climate, Jiangsu Province is one of the provinces which have much natural disaster and drought, steady rain,waterlogging are its primary meteorological disasters. Using CITYSTAR 3.0 , CITY STAR GIS and reasonable indicators for disaster estimation, this paper progresses evaluation and analysis for its primary meteorological disasters such as drought, steady rain and waterlogging. In this work, the frequency of disaster and the risk to agriculture are taken into accounted. It provides a scientific foundation for establishing policy of disaster prevention and reduction, managing direction of disaster prevention investment and insurance.更多还原