华南前汛期的气候异常特征及其影响因子的分析

【作者】 马慧；

【导师】 王谦谦；

【作者基本信息】 南京气象学院 ， 气象学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本文利用国家气候中心整编的1951-2000年中国160个站的月平均降水和月平均气温资料，重点分析了华南前汛期降水和气温异常的时空变化特征及其与海温异常的关系。发现：(1)华南地区的降水主要集中在前汛期，而且降水偏多现象易发生在东部地区，降水偏少现象易发生在北部地区。(2)华南前汛期近50年的总的降水趋势变化不明显；而气温变化的总趋势是增加的。(3)华南前汛期降水异常存在3a、5a、7a的年际周期和14a的年代际周期；华南前汛期气温异常存在的2a、4a、5a的年际周期及12a、19a的年代际周期。(4)华南前汛期降水与内蒙古和东北的部分地区呈现同位相的变化特征，与淮河流域呈反位相；而华南前汛期气温与全国大部分地区呈现同位相的变化特征，与个别地区呈反位相。(5)华南前汛期的降水和气温存在一定的关系。华南前汛期降水和气温都有5a的主周期。华南前汛期降水和气温都与东北以及内蒙古部分地区4-6月的降水和气温呈同位相分布。华南前汛期的多(少)雨年和凉(热)年有一定的对应关系。多雨年和凉年的南亚高压和副高都较常年偏弱、少雨年和热年的南亚高压和副高都较常年偏强。(6)华南前汛期降水与前一年5月～前一年8月Key区域(130°E～158°E，5°N～18°N)的海温异常有较好的负相关关系。而华南前汛期气温与前一年10月～前一年11月Key区域(85°E～97°E，5°N～16°N)的海温异常有较好的正相关关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 By use of the monthly mean precipitation and temperature data at 160 stations in China during 1951-2000.Investigation of precipitation and temperature anomalies and corresponding general circulation has been performed. In the study of the mechanism of precipitation anomalies, the discovery is then chiefly to study the effect of SSTA on precipitation and temperature in pre-floods period in South of China, concluding that there is a high con-elation between season precipitation in South of China and SSTA SSTA distribution. Some conclusions in this paper as followed:(1) The distribution of precipitation in the South of China is asymmetrical. The most rainfall in the pre-flood period and annual are both happen in the east of South of China . The least rainfall in the pre-flood period and annual are both happen in the north of South of China ;(2) The total rainfall tendency has little change ,while the total temperature tendency is increase.(3) The precipitation anomaly existed 3year. 5year 7year 14year periodic variation in the pre-flood period in the South of China. The temperature anomaly existed 2year 4year 5year12year 19year periodic variation in the pre-flood period in the South of China.(4) The precipitation in the pre-flood period in the South of China is the same to that of the Neimeng and the southeast of China, while it is opposed to that of the north area of Changjiang ;The temperature in the pre-flood period of South of China is opposed to that of most areas of China.(5)There are some relationship between the precipitation and temperature in the pre-flood period in the South of China. The precipitation and temperature both existed 5year periodic variation in the pre-flood period in the South of China. The precipitation and temperature in the pre-flood period in the South of China is the same to that of the Neimeng and the southeast of China. There are some relationship between more (less) precipitation years and colder(warmer) years. The Southern Asia High and the Subtropical High of the more precipitation years and colder years are both more weak; The Southern Asia High and the Subtropical High of the more precipitation years and colder years are both more strong.(6)There is apparent negative correlation between pre-floods period precipitation in South of China and SSTA(5-8 monthly averaged in former year), especially the higher correlation in the "KEY regions" (130°~158°E, 5°~18°N) ;There is apparent positive correlation between pre-floods period temperature in South of China and SSTA(10-11 monthly averaged in former year), especially the higher correlation in the "KEY regions" (85°~97°E, 5°~16°N) .更多还原