【作者】 王妍；

【导师】 常玉连；

【作者基本信息】 大庆石油学院 ， 化工过程机械， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 油田生产系统是一个大型复杂的工程系统，系统越大其系统结构复杂程度越大。油田生产过程是一个动态过程，随着油田的开发，如何调整油田生产系统结构，以适应生产状态的变化，是油田规划设计与生产管理者的经常性的工作任务。结合油田生产的发展历史，研究油田动态系统的变化过程，揭示出系统的规律性，并用这些规律预测油田开发状态变化，从而做出生产系统调整规划，保证油田生产系统高效、低成本下稳定运行。本文以油田注水系统为研究对象，建立合适的预测模型，以注水量为预测目标，按照一定的计算机仿真方法，预测出未来工况下系统的运行情况。 本文以翁文波教授介绍的Poisson旋回公式作为预测模型的基本结构，根据油田实际历史生产数据，采用最小二乘法对模型进行参数估计，建立了产油量和综合含水率预测模型，从而计算出预测年的预测注水量。 以预测年注水量为基础，根据实际生产系统结构设定预测仿真工况，模拟出系统运行的状态：另一方面也可以按照设想的注水量，井、站的开关状态设定生产工况，预测仿真工况下系统的运行状态，然后进行井、站及系统分析。 预测结果提供了在预测工况下注水生产系统最佳的注水压力和最佳注水井数、站数，由此可提出注水系统规划调整方案。 本文编制了油田注水系统生产过程预测仿真软件，以大庆油田历史数据为基础，通过对采油七厂生产数据进行计算，给出相应分析结果和调整建议，证明该软件能够用于预测未来油田生产系统运行情况。更多还原

【Abstract】 Production system in oil field is a large-scale and complicated engineering system, Bigger is system complicated level of the system structure is bigger. The production process in oil field is a dynamic cource, Along with the development of oil field, How to adjust production system structure and suit the change of production state is a work assignment frequently for oil field planning design and production management person. Combine with the development history of oil field production, study the change course of dynamic system of oil field, reveal the regularity of system, and predict the state change of oil field development with these laws, thus make adjustment planning of the production system,ensure stable run of production system under high efficiency and low cost. Research object of the dissertation is water flooding system in oil field, build the suitable predicting model, aim at predicting water flooding yield, according to the fixed computer simulation method, calculates out operating situation of system under the coming operating mode.The dissertation regard the Poisson formula that is descripted by professor Weng Wenbo as the basic structure of predicting model, according to the real history production data of oil field, adopts the least square method to carry on the parameter estimation, built predicting model of oil yield and the synthetical moisture content, thus counts out predicting water flooding yield.Based on water flooding yield on predicting year, according to structure of real producing system, fix the forecasting simulation operating mode. Predict the running state of system; on the other hand can predict the running state of system under simulation operating mode according to imagined water flooding yield-, state of well and station, then analysis welk station and system.Predicting result provided the most advantageous water pressure and the optimum well number under predicting circumstance of water flooding system.The dissertation programs the software of forcasting and simulation in production process of water flooding system in oil field, the software is used to water flooding system in Putaohua oil field and put forward the corresponding analytical result and suggestion, the result shows that this software can be used to predicts the coming operating circumstances of production system in oil field.更多还原