【作者】 尹思全；

【导师】 刘发全；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 施工导流系统是水利水电工程中的一个重要系统。施工导流方案决策是关系到水电工程造价、工期、安全和施工方便与否的关键问题。本文围绕这一主题，对施工导流风险率计算和导流方案优选决策进行了探讨和研究，给出了全面考虑水文、水力不确定性的导流风险计算数学模型和导流方案模糊多属性优选决策模型。 通过对导流风险来源和引起导流风险的各种不确定性因素的论述和分析，把施工导流风险定义为天然来(洪)水经过调蓄后，导流泄水建筑物的最大泄水流量超过其设计最大泄水能力的概率。在该模型中，可考虑水文中的洪峰流量、洪水总量和洪水过程的不确定性及水力的不确定性，提出了用Monte-Carlo方法计算施工导流风险的步骤和用近似法计算施工导流风险的方法。 考虑到施工导流方案决策时的实际情况，对影响导流方案优选的四个属性指标的特点和决策过程进行了分析和研究，认为施工导流方案决策中的模糊性应该受到重视。本文将当今决策前沿理论和模糊数学理论应用于施工导流方案决策过程中，提出用采用三角模糊数来表示属性指标值和各指标的权重大小，同时给出了定性指标量化的三角模糊数两极比例方法和多属性决策中指标权重的确定方法。该模型所蕴涵的信息量比经典决策模型要大，决策过程也更加符合客观实际。最后，通过一算例，说明了该模型的具体决策过程。更多还原

【Abstract】 Construction diversion system is an important system in water resources and hydraulic engineering. The decision making of Construction diversion is a key problem concerned with the cost, period, safety and convenience of construction. Around the main subject, the thesis studies the risk calculation of diversion and the decision making of diversion scheme. Then, a mathematical model for risk calculation of diversion considering of the uncertainty of hydrology and hydraulics is defined and a scheme selection optimization model of diversion based on fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making is established.By analyzing risk sources and those uncertain factors affecting the risk, the diversion risk is defined as the probability of the maximum discharge after being adjusted and held higher than the maximum design flood. In this model, the peak of flood, flood total outflow and flood process are to be considered. A calculation program with Monte-Carlo method and a simplified method for calculating diversion risk are suggested.In consideration of the actual situation in decision making of construction diversion, the fuzzy that exists in the four attribute indexes and decision-making process should be attached importance to. This paper applies the fuzzy theory and the newest decision-making theory to the process of diversion scheme selection optimization and triangular fuzzy number is used to express the values of those attribute indexes and their weights, together with the triangular fuzzy number bipolar scaling method which quantifies the qualitative factors and the method which determine the weights of these factors. The information included in the model is much more than that in the classical decision-making model, so the process of decision-making model is more suitable to the fact. Finally, an example is given to show concretely the decision-making process.更多还原