【作者】 邓娜；

【导师】 李怀恩； 秦毅；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 环境工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 洮河红旗站是刘家峡水库入库站，其主管单位西北电管局为提高电网水调管理水平，获得最大经济效益，决定建立水调自动化系统，其中水情自动测报系统是个重要组成部分。本论文结合此实际课题，针对水情自动测报系统中的现有水文预报模型结构复杂、参数多、率定和修正较困难等缺点，对如何选择水文模型，提高预报精度进行了研究；另外，为保障供水安全，对入库含沙量过程进行了探讨。 论文的主要内容和结果如下： 1．分析研讨了洮河流域的流域特征、主要自然地理要素对水文的影响，以及降雨径流要素的变化规律。确定岷县站以上流域是洮河的主要产流区。 2．根据流域的观测资料条件采用由秦毅提出的具有成因概念的系统模型(System Model of Genesis，简称SMG模型)进行洮河红旗站日径流过程预报。该模型简单易行，对资料条件要求不高，且对降雨径流有较好模拟效果，能反映一定水文规律。结果显示方案精度等级为甲等水平，可用于实际作业预报。 3．在实时校正中运用神经网络方法进行误差预报，并根据研究的具体情况对BP神经网络进行了适当的改进。校正结果显著地提高了预报方案的确定性系数。 4．分析了流域水沙特性：洮河流域泥沙的主要产地是李家村-红旗区间的黄土地区；汛期(6-9月)输沙量占多年平均的81％以上。 5．通过对流域侵蚀产沙输沙影响因素的分析，在预报流量的基础上，尝试性地建立降雨含沙量过程的耦合模型，以保证供水水质。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hongqi station of Tao River is the entrance station of Liujiaxia reservoir. To improve the management both in network and water dispatching and to obtain maximum economic profits, the reservoir operation section of North-west electricity management bureau, the superior of liujiaxia development, decides to set up a system of reservoir automation operation which includes an automatic system of hydrological situation forecasting, a important part of the automation operation system. Taking this practical requirement as study background, this thesis worked on the selection of hydrologic forecasting model and the improvement in forecast precision for the practicing models are complicated in structure, difficulty in multi-parameter calibration, and hard in model updating, for instance, the Xinganjiang model, and the most important thing of all is the fact that there is no sufficient observed data to establish such a model. In addition, this thesis also made an attempt to forecast the hydrograph of suspended sediment for guarantying the safety of water supply from reservoir. The main contents of this thesis and conclusions are shown as follows: 1. Analyze the hydrologic characteristics of Tao River basin, the influence on the hydrology progress imposed by physiographic factors, and variation of the relationship between rainfall and runoff. Identified that the region aboveMinxian station is the key area of runoff-yield2. With the observations and by using SMG (System Model of Genesis) model proposed by Qinyi, the daily runoff hydrograph at Hongqi station of Tao River is forecasted. The results showed that SMG model is simple for applying and not strict with data. The performance of the model had reached the first level according to the special standard, which inferences that the model reflects certain hydrologic behavior. Therefore it is suggested to be applied to practical forecasting.3. Error correction is an important task to real time forecasting. Neural network method was adopted here to build an updating model which predicts the error used in forecast error correction. Proper improvements for BP neural network were also made according to the actual situation. The rectified results show that the determine coefficient of the model has been increased remarkably.4. By analyzing the runoff and sediment characteristics of Tao River basin, it can be concluded that the main sediment-yield region is loess area between Lijia village and Hongqi zone where sediment yield in flood season (June to September) is more than 81 percent of the mean averaged over years.5. Based on the forecasting flow from the real-time forecasting model mentioned above, this thesis tentatively set up the coupling model of rainfall and suspended sediment to serve the water quality control and water supply.更多还原