【作者】 于纪玉；

【导师】 王超； 耿福明；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 环境工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 地下水环境预测是地下水资源规划管理的重要内容之一，搞好地下水环境预测对促进地下水资源可持续利用具有重要的现实意义。地下水环境预测方法，特别是预测模型的建立以及在实际中的运用是近年来受到广泛重视的研究领域。本文在该领域作了多方面的探索，文中首先分析了目前地下水环境方面存在的问题及产生的原因，并对造成这些问题的机理进行了简单分析，提出了地下水环境预测原理及一般程序，简要介绍了目前在水环境宏观预测方面常用的方法，供进行地下水环境预测参考。 灰色系统是一个信息不完全明确的系统，以研究灰色系统为对象的灰色理论是与白色理论、黑色理论相对应的。地下水资源系统即是一个信息不完全明确的系统，因此，采用灰色系统理论对地下水水质进行预测是完全可行的。本文在对地下水的理化性质进行系统分析基础上，探讨了地下水水质预测灰色理论模型的建立方法，并对建立的模型进行了检验，在检验合格的基础上，应用灰色理论模型对某规划区地下水中Cl^-、SO₄^2-、HCO₃^-、Na⁺、K⁺、Mg²⁺硬度及矿化度等发展趋势进行了预测，并对预测结果进行了分析。 地下水位的预测也是地下水环境预测的重要内容，地下水在开采过程中所产生的地面沉陷、海水入侵、水质恶化等现象均与地下水位持续下降有关，本文在对地下水位变化机理分析的基础上，探讨了地下水水位预测回归分析模型的建立方法，并针对某规划区地下水位变化的特点，应用该模型对该规划区地下水位发展趋势进行了预测，并对预测结果进行了分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Groundwater environment prediction,which is a very important field in groundwater resources planning management, contribute to sustained utilization of groundwater resources extremely. Groundwater environment prediction methods,especially the establishment of prediction model and its utilization in reality,has increasingly been attached importance to and studied in recent years.In this paper,firstly,the problems existing in the present groundwater environment and their contributing factors were simply analyzed, the principle and the general procedure of groundwater environment prediction were then put forward,and the methods most in use in water environment macroscopic prediction were briefly introduced.Grey system theory whose research object is Grey system of which information is imperfect,contrasts with White system theory and Black system theory.Obviously, groundwater resources system is a grey system,so it is feasible for us to utilize Grey system theory to predict groundwater quality. In this paper,on the basis of systems analysis on physicochemical properties of groundwater,the establishment method of groundwater quality grey system prediction model was probed into,and the model was examined. Then, the author used the model to predict the development tendency of CL+, SO42-,HCO3-,,Na+,K*,Mg2+ and hardness of groundwater of some planning area,and analyzed the prediction results.Groundwater level prediction is also a very important field in groundwater environment prediction.Land subsidence,encroachment of seawater and deterioration of water quality and so on by artificial development have relation to sustained drop of groundwater level.After groundwater level change mechanism was analyzed, the establishment method of groundwater level prediction regression analysis model was explored.and the groundwater level development trend of some planning region with the model was predicted according to its change characters of groundwater level,wath’s more, the prediction results was analyzed.更多还原