【作者】 郑建湖；

【导师】 沈斐敏；

【作者基本信息】 福州大学 ， 环境工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 由于我国国民经济持续高速增长，交通需求越来越大，交通安全问题越来越严重。在全世界发达国家和一些发展中国家交通事故处于下降的情况下，我国的交通事故仍处于上升趋势，因此对交通事故的研究是非常必要的。本文首先分析了道路交通安全的现状，回顾了各国对道路交通事故的研究情况以及研究的空白点，确定了论文的研究对象，即道路交通事故危险因素辨识与控制技术。为了探求道路交通事故发生机理，辨识道路交通事故的危险因素所在，本文对事故致因理论进行了分析，并在此基础上提出了道路交通事故致因理论。依据道路交通事故致因理论，对国内外常用的交通事故危险因素辨识方法进行了比较研究，并选出了适合道路交通事故危险因素的辨识方法—系统工程的辨识方法。应用该方法对道路交通系统（包括人、车、道路和道路环境子系统及其交接面）所存在的危险因素进行了全面地、系统地辨识，并做出安全检查表，以便有针对性地采取控制措施。为了有效地预防和控制交通事故的发生，本文对交通事故预测方法进行了比较研究，分析了事故预测的基本原则和一般程序，并根据交通事故的灰色特性，采用灰色预测方法对福州市道路交通事故进行了预测，并对预测模型进行了检验。最后笔者提出了综合控制交通事故的基本对策。本文以系统论、信息论、控制论作为整个研究工作的指导思想。通过对道路交通系统所存在的危险因素进行有效地辨识，进而有针对性地提出交通事故控制对策，为预防和减少道路交通事故的发生提供源头管理措施，以便全面、系统地控制交通事故，真正实现本质安全，有效改变交通事故预防和控制滞后的工作局面。更多还原

【Abstract】 As economy develops fast continually in China, traffic demand speeds remarkably. As a result, the problems of traffic safety become more and more seriously. It is very necessary to study on road accidents, on the condition that traffic accidents are on the rise in China, while they decreasing in developed countries and some other developing ones. In this paper, the current conditions of road safety are analyzed first, and then, the research status and its blank sites of road traffic accidents are analyzed. Thus, it establishes the object of research—methods of identifying and controlling risk factors in road accidents. In order to probe the process of road traffic accident and identify its risk factors, this paper analyzes accident-causing theory, based on which road accident-causing theory is put forward.After analyzing the existing methods of identifying risk factors in road accidents, the appropriate method is adopted to identify risk factors in road traffic system, which includes four small systems—systems of human being, vehicle, road and environment. In the meantime, Safety Check Lists are made out. The methods of accident prediction are comparatively studied in order to prevent and control road accidents effectively, and the guidelines and general procedures of prediction are introduced. In the light of gray characteristics of traffic accidents, GM(1,1) is employed to predict traffic accidents in Fuzhou and the outcome is examined. In the end, the elementary countermeasures for traffic safety are put forward.This paper considers system theory, information theory and cybernetics as polestars. After identifying all potential risk factors in traffic system, the effective countermeasures for traffic safety are put forward. It provides resources for administration department to prevent and reduce traffic accidents. Thus, the backward situation of preventing and controlling accidents is changed, and real safety one for traffic system is realized.更多还原