【作者】 雷静；

【导师】 张思聪；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 地下水环境脆弱性（也称地下水脆弱性）反映地下水系统遭受污染的潜在可能性。地下水脆弱性研究成果可以为土地利用规划、地下水水资源保护规划、地下水水质监测等提供参考，也可以提高公众关于地下水污染的风险意识，树立以防为主的思想。地下水脆弱性评价方法主要有三类：迭置指数法，过程数学模拟法和统计方法。这三类方法互有优缺点。本文在借鉴国内外研究经验的基础上，进一步深入系统地研究地下水脆弱性问题，以唐山市平原区为研究区，建立了适应研究区具体情况的由地下水埋深等6个因子组成的脆弱性评价因子体系，开发了基于GIS技术的综合性地下水脆弱性模型并将其成功地应用在唐山市平原区的地下水本质脆弱性评价中。该模型以参数系统法为基础，将数学模型和统计方法嵌入该综合模型中，通过HYDRUS模型进行数值模拟来建立评价因子的评分体系，权重体系由主成分－因子分析法得到。该综合性模型综合了地下水脆弱性评价中常用的三类方法，使之相互补充，以克服单一方法的不足，提高了评价结果的客观性和科学性。本文还以ArcView GIS软件为平台，利用Arc-SDM扩展模块，应用WOE方法（实证权重法）对唐山市平原区地下水硝酸盐氮特殊脆弱性进行了研究。选用农家肥施用量等8个参数为预测因子，以硝酸盐氮浓度为响应因子，应用WOE方法得到了硝酸盐氮浓度大于10mg/L的后验概率分布图，并通过多种途径检验了研究结果的客观合理性。综合性地下水脆弱性模型还被分别应用在北京市平原区地下水脆弱性评价和北京郊区中心镇饮用水源保护区的地下水脆弱性评价中，评价结果分别为分析和预测雨洪滞蓄对地下水环境的影响和饮用水源保护区的地下水保护工作提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Groundwater vulnerability reflects the relative potential possibility of groundwater system to be polluted. The results of groundwater vulnerability research can provide a useful tool in land use planning, groundwater protection planning and groundwater quality monitoring. They can also help the pubic know more about groundwater pollution risk and have the idea of prevention taking priority in groundwater protection.There are three major classes of groundwater vulnerability assessment methods: overlay and index methods, methods employing process-based simulation models and statistical methods. The above three classes of methods all have their own advantages and disadvantages. Using the research experiences gained home and abroad for reference, groundwater vulnerability is systematically studied further in this paper. Taking Tangshan plain area as the study area and based on the specific conditions of the study area, six parameters such as depth to groundwater are selected to form the vulnerability assessment factor system and an integrated groundwater vulnerability model is developed which has been successfully applied in the intrinsic vulnerability assessment in Tangshan plain area. The model has overlay and index method as the basic, mathematical model and statistical method embedded to form an integrated model. The HYDRUS model is performed to obtain the rating system, and principal component analysis and factor analysis are used to get the weighting system. The integrated model employs three major classes of groundwater vulnerability assessment methods that are used together to overcome the shortcomings of the single class of methods and to<WP=5>strengthen the objective and scientific foundation of the assessment results. WOE (Weights of evidence) method is used to study the pecific vulnerability of nitrate nitrogen in Tangshan plain area, which is conducted on the extension module of Arc-SDM with ArcView GIS software as the platform. Farmyard manure application amount and other seven parameters are selected as predictor variables and nitrate nitrogen is the response variable. WOE method is used to obtain the posterior probability distribution map of nitrate nitrogen concentration greater than 10mg/L. The objectivity and reasonability of the output is tested through various methods.The integrated vulnerability model is also applied in Beijing plain area and the central town drinking water source protective zones in Beijing suburb to assess groundwater vulnerability. The study results provide a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting the influence of storm water runoff retention to groundwater environment and for groundwater protection in drinking water source protective zones separately.更多还原