【作者】 蒋益锋；

【导师】 虞晓芬；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工业大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 自1998年率先全国走出低迷状态以来，杭州市住宅产业发展迅速并已成为区域经济的新增长点和消费热点。在市场持续火爆的同时，杭州市房价也多年保持快速上升的态势。由于房价的过快上涨，关于是否存在房地产泡沫和市场健康性的争论也成为社会各界的热点话题。本文就此展开研究。 论文从房地产泡沫和房地产预警理论入手，首先从供给层面、需求层面、市场特征三个方面分析了杭州市住宅市场的现状，在此基础上研究了房价的波动规律。 论文运用三种方法定量地分析了杭州市房价的泡沫程度。在不能得到目前的泡沫破裂危险程度的情况下，尝试性地通过建立了区域房地产市场预警系统对杭州市住宅市场的健康性和警戒程度进行了判定。 最后文章从影响房地产市场波动的内生因素和外生因素出发，详细地分析了杭州住宅市场存在地潜在风险，并相应地提出了在市场机制作用下如何有效化解和防范房地产泡沫的手段和措施，此项研究对促进杭州住宅产业与社会经济协调发展，保持我市经济持续健康发展有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 After walking out of the real estate slump in 1998, the rapidly developed housing industry of Hangzhou has been a new impetus of regional economy and the focus of consumption. With the sustaining boom of housing market, the housing price has kept on rising for several years. By the soar of housing price, the problem whether bubbles really exist, whether the housing market is healthy has been the focus of the argument.Starting from the summarizing of theory of real estate bubbles and real estate early-warning , This paper analyses the actuality of Hangzhou housingmarket from supply demand and market character. Then we study the law ofhousing price fluctuation.Next, we estimate the bubbles quantificationally through three different methods. We try to establish the regional real estate early warning system to judge the healthy and alert degree of housing market because we can’t obtain the dangerous degree of bubble burst.Finally, This paper particularly analyses the potential risk of housing market from Endogenuous and external factor, puts forward some solutions to prevent the potential risk through market mechanism accordingly.更多还原