中国创业投资项目评价模型研究

【作者】 隆远勇；

【导师】 冯文伟；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 创业投资的项目选择是创业投资决策中的一项至关重要的内容，它对投资的成败以及投资回报率的高低有着巨大的影响。而项目选择这一决策主要是建立在项目评价的基础之上的，项目评价的准确与否直接决定了项目选择决策的正确与否，从而也间接影响到创业投资的效率。现实中广泛运用的创业投资项目经验决策法存在着横向和纵向不一贯的缺点，也难以应付复杂的投资项目，因此有必要建立规范的创业投资项目评价模型来对评价活动进行指导和综合，以提高决策的正确性，这正是本文研究的出发点。 本文分为五个部分： 第一部分作为全文的铺垫，首先对本文所涉及到的有关创业投资的几个基本概念作了解释，并重点解释了创业投资项目评价的含义和特点；接着论述了创业投资项目评价的意义，以及建立创业投资项目评价模型的必要性；最后对本文的研究方法作了简要说明。 第二部分着重介绍了前人建立的比较有影响的创业投资项目评价模型，包括Tyebjee和Bruno的项目评价模型、米丘朗的NVT评估技术、台湾的创业投资项目评价指标体系以及国内孙有杰等提出的指标体系等，并对比分析了这些模型各自的优缺点。 文章的重点在第三部分，在这一部分里，笔者在对前人的模型的综合评价的基础上，运用迈克尔·波特的企业竞争优势分析框架建立了一个新的“创业投资项目竞争优势评价模型”，从产业吸引力和企业竞争优势两个方面对创业企业的成长性进行评价。为了更准确地评价企业的竞争优势，笔者将创业投资项目分成了8种类型，针对不同类型的项目提出了不同的评价指标体系。然后又将这些不同类型的指标纳入了一个统一的评价模型之中，并提出了进行综合分析评价的思路和方法。 在文章的第四部分，笔者选取了20个中国创业投资案侧，分别用Tyebjee和Bruno的模型、米丘朗模型和笔者的竞争优势评价模型进行了评估，试图通过将评价结果与实际情况进行对比，判断各模型的评价准确性。结果显示，Tyebjee和Bruno的模型与笔者的竞争优势分析评价模型都具有较高的评价准确性，这就证明了笔者新建立的评价模型是有效的.进而笔者又运用竞争优势分析模型对成功企业和失败企业进行了比较研究，进一步说明了通用该模型进行评价的优越性。 文章的第五部分对全文的内容进行了的总结。 本文的创新之处表现在如下两个方面: 一、第一次将迈克尔·波特的企业竞争优势分析框架退雨到了对创业企业的评价之中，从而将对创业企业的评价与对成熟企业的评价沟通起来了。迈克尔波特的这一理论分析框架在企业管理领城得到广泛认可和运用，充分证明了它的合理性。笔者认为，对创业企业的评价也可以利用这一框架，即从产业吸引力和企业竞争优势两个方面出发对企业进行分析评价，这样能够更加深刻地认识到创业企业的长期盈利能力和经营失败的风险。这样的分析方法还有助于创业投资者或创业企业家更加深刻地理解产业的特点，从而制定出恰当的竟争战略。 二、笔者认为，对于如此复杂而又如此重要的创业投资项目评价工作，试图用一个单一的、普通适用的指标体系来进行有效的评价走圈难的，甚至是不可能的。因此笔者主张对创业投资项目进行分类，对不同类型的企业采用不同的评价指标。本文从技术和市场两个方面出发，将企业创浙分成了啤种形式，然后又以创新类型和企业成长阶段为依据，将创业投资项目分成了八种类型。在此基拙上，笔者提出了针对8种类型企业的不同的分析评价指标.更多还原

【Abstract】 The selection of projects is of especially great importance in the series of decision-makings for venture capitalists. It is critical to the success of the investment and exerts profound influence to the return rate of investment As the selection of projects is decided by the evaluation result, the reliability of the evaluation directly influences the propemess of the decision, this influence the efficiency of the investment. The dominating practice of venture capitalists that make decisions without any aiding models sums down to low intra-judge reliability and low inter-judge reliability, and it also leads to incapability in handling complicated projects. So it is necessary to establish some formal projects evaluation model to guide and improve the venture capitalists’ decision-makings. That accounts for why I choose this research program.There are five sections in this article:In the first section, several fundamental concepts are defined and emphasis is especially given to the concept and characteristics of the Projects Evaluation of Venture Capitalist. Then the function and necessity of Projects Evaluation of Venture Capitalist is analyzed. The research methods are also given at the end of the paper.In the second section, some popular models of Projects Evaluation of Venture Capitalist are presented. They are the model of Tyebjee and Bruno, the New Venture Template of Ronald K. Michelle, the model used in Taiwan and the one given by Sun Youjie etc. After comparison, the advantages and disadvantages of each model are discussed.The third section is the key part of this article. In this section, a brand new model, namely, the Competitive Advantage Analysis Model, is established with the framework of Michael E. Porter’s Competitive Advantage Theory, which also contains the excellent essence of the models introduced. This model handles the evaluation of the project in two respects, that is, the Industrial Attractiveness perspective and the Competitive Advantages of the Mew Venture, To evaluate theCompetitive Advantages of the New Venture more exactly, projects are classified into eight categories, and different factor system is provided tor each category. In the end, all these different factors are integrated into a uniform model and synthetic methods are provide too.In the fourth section of the article, 20 cases are chosen to examine the reliability of different models. Tyebjee and Bruno’s model, Mitchell’s model and the newly established Competitive Advantage Analysis Model are tested to judge their respective reliability. The result show that Tyebjee and Bruno’s model and the newly established Competitive Advantage Analysis Model are more capable in predicting the potential and promise of new ventures. This result suggests that the newly established Competitive Advantage Analysis Model is effective. Comparative research is conducted next to the succeeded and failed ventures, which further demonstrate the superiority of the new model.The last section is the conclusion of the article.There are two innovations in this paper:Firstly, the framework of Michael E. Porter’s Competitive Advantage Theory is borrowed in the evaluation of new ventures for the first time, thus build a bridge between the analysis of new venture and matured enterprises. Michael E. Porter’s Competitive Advantage Theory is widely used and accepted in the fields of entrepreneurial management, which fully demonstrate its reasonability. It is also applicable to new ventures. It provides a good perspective to understand the long-term profitability and risks of failure for new ventures. It is also helpful for the entrepreneurs to have a better understanding of the industry and cany out appropriate competitive strategies.Secondly, in my point of view, it is difficult, or even impossible to tackle such complicated and important work with a single and universally applicable model. A classification should be made and different factors should be considered for different kind of ventures. In this regards, the ventures are ca更多还原