【作者】 邓海燕；

【导师】 梁杰；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳工业大学 ， 会计学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国经济的发展，有效的资本市场已成为人们关注的焦点。2001年证监会的市场监管思路出现了重大调整，从风险控制转向风险揭示，接连出台的各种规范、准则、条例已经初步构建了一个较为完整的信息披露体系。但结合2001年1月普华永道发布的一份关于“不透明指数”的调查报告，中国的不透明指数与其他国家和地区相比，存在显著差异。审视我国证券市场信息披露的制度的有效性势在必行。本文正是从此目的出发，从制度变迁着手，对信息披露的一个方面——盈利预测信息披露制度进行剖析，通过规范研究与实证研究相结合的方法分析制度建设对盈利预测信息质量的影响。 首先，从理论角度分析了盈利预测信息披露，管制，审核方面的理论，探讨上市公司披露盈利预测的动机；并且分析了制度变迁的一般机理，使人们了解政府出台的制度法规的基本原理，在此基础上对我国盈利预测相关制度进行整理，概括其发展特点，为实证研究做准备。 然后，从实证角度出发，以制度变迁特点划分区间，按区间对深市、沪市1996年—2001年429家IPO公司盈利预测偏差作了系统性研究，并从各区间中抽取30家IPO公司进行配对T检验，验证了制度变迁对会计信息质量的影响，而且分别从整体样本、分组样本及不同变量进行细化研究，从深层次探讨了影响盈利预测偏差的有关因素。 最后结合各国盈利预测制度，从披露盈利预测的形式、方式、内容、期间及更正等方面，对我国上市公司盈利预测相关制度提出建议。建议预测性财务信息的表示方式用区间来代替单一数字；应加强相关中介机构的行业自律行为，培养财务分析师，加强事前控制；重视IPO公司盈利质量，严把发行关，把主营业务收入预测放到首要位置，从政府导向上减轻公司在IPO时操纵盈利预测的动机，从根本上提高盈利预测信息质量。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has rapidly developed its economy. In order to guarantee the success of China economy, an efficient Capital market is the core. In 2001,market censorship has greatly changed, namely from risk controlling to risk showing. In fact the government formulate all kinds of standard, criterion and regulations that have formed the more complete system of information showing. But according to "The Opacity Index "report published by Price Waterhouse & Coopers in Jan. 2001, Opacity Index of china has some marked differences from other countries or districts. It’s the time to test effective function of information showing of securities market. This study uses earning forecast as example to demonstrate how the role of financial regulation and accounting information play in china stock market and uses literature review and empirical methods for verifying established hypotheses.First, analyzing showing theory, exam theory and verifying theory about earning forecast to give the reasons why the China stock market demands in IPO market. This study reviews the related regulations, mainly discuses the properties of earning forecast in China market. On the basis of analysis the general of the change of institution lets people realize the fundamental theory the regulations published by government, I rearrange the institution relatively to the earning forecast and formulate the characteristic ready for the empirical researching.Then, this study uses empirical research, accord to the characteristic of change institution divide the institutions to time range and study the different former of time range, including 429 samples from 1996 to 2001. Selecting 30 IPO in every time range to paired verified the effect of change in institution on accounting information. By whole example, part example, definition of operating variables and applied statistical methods to include empirical result.Last, compares the requirements and regulations in relation to earning forecast among US, Taiwan area and China from forms, content, range and making corrections to suggest the express way to information showing adopts range instead of simple numeral; Improves office clerk quality and attaches importance to controlling before the event; takes earning quality ofIPO seriously and lightens motive to operating earning forecast in order to improve essentially information quality of earning forecast.更多还原