【作者】 由华；

【导师】 吴粒；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳工业大学 ， 会计学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 在商品经济环境中，自主经营的企业可以视为一个具有生命特征的循环体，维持这个循环体运行的“血液”是现金。企业拥有充足并且流转通畅的“血液”才能生存和发展。现金流量状况的好坏取决于现金流量管理水平的高低。有关现金流量管理的研究也逐渐开展起来。主要的国内外研究成果集中于以下几方面：(1)现金流量管理环境；(2)现金流量分析指标在财务分析评价中的应用；(3)现金流量报告等。随着我国市场经济的不断发展，我国企业开始重视现金流量管理以改善自身现金流量状况。但我国企业的现金流量状况仍不容乐观，在现金流量管理方面仍存在着现金流量管理目标不明确，现金流量管理理论与实践相脱节等问题。明确现金流量管理目标的关键在于对现金流量指标的选择。本文认为引入自由现金流量概念将有助于上述问题的解决。可以将现金流量管理目标细化为自由现金流量最大，因为自由现金流量是指经营活动现金流量扣除资本性支出后的余额，这部分现金流量即使被全部使用也不会影响到企业的发展，可以衡量企业经营业绩和未来实力。同时自由现金流量的构成要素可对企业的各个层次和结构进行具体的权责划分，操作性较强，是现金流量管理理论和实践衔接的纽带。本文收集了大量资料，在深入理解理论的基础上，提出自由现金流量的预测与分析是其应用的主要内容。本文将对此进行探讨。本文将自由现金流量的预测分为两类，一类是自由现金流量的详细预测，为探讨重点；另一类为自由现金流量的趋势预测。在详细预测中主要研究的内容是提出在预测经营活动现金流入量时要考虑预测的不确定性，使用概率技术。本文将自由现金流量分析分为详细分析和纵向分析，主要是对详细分析方法进行了论述，将自由现金流量的构成要素的变动情况包括经营活动现金流量和资本性支出都分别进行分析，找出影响自由现金流量增长的原因。更多还原

【Abstract】 An enterprise can be considered as a circle sustained by cash. Cash flows are inflows and outflows of cash and cash equivalents of an enterprise. With good and enough cash flows, the enterprise can keep alive and develop. The status of cash flow is decided by the degree of management. The theory of cash flow management includes management environment, ratio of cash flow and cash flow statement. Now, the status of cash flow is not very good in some enterprises in china. The objective of cash flow management is uncertain, which stops the development of cash flow management. To choose free cash flows max as the objective is a good way to solve the problem. What cash flows from operating activities minus capitalized expense is free cash flow. There is no any effect on the development of the enterprise if the cash flows are totally used. Therefore, free cash flow is very important for an enterprise to measure the achievement of management. The thesis proposes that the prediction and analysis of free cash flow are the main contents about free cash flow in use. It’s also the key point of the article. The thesis classified the forecast into two categories. One is free cash flow prediction in detail, the other is tendency of forecast. Because the uncertainty of forecast must be considered, so the thesis thinks that math techniques should be applied. The thesis also classifies the analysis into two categories. One is analysis in detail, the main content of study is to analyze the changes in free cash flow, and find the reason of preventing free cash flow from increasing.更多还原