【作者】 王少锋；

【导师】 封超年； 彭永欣； 郭文善；

【作者基本信息】 扬州大学 ， 作物栽培学与耕作学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 对江苏省六个麦区和七个农场近五年(1997-2001年)小麦生产的成本和经济效益进行了调查，辅以小麦生产肥料报酬率等试验，分析近几年小麦市场的供求特点和价格走向，研究中国加入WTO后，对江苏省小麦生产的影响以及江苏省小麦生产应采取的对策。结果如下： 1．江苏省小麦生产的成本投入水平近几年呈逐年递减趋势，麦区间以徐淮麦区最高。各项成本构成中，机械费用逐年增加，其他各项费用均逐年减少，其中以肥料费用减少幅度最大。且小麦生产的单位成本与产量之间呈极显著二次曲线关系，产量为400kg/亩左右时，单位成本最低。 2．江苏省小麦生产的成本纯收益率、单位面积产量、产值、净产值和纯效益以及每工净产值等几项经济指标均一致的反映出，江苏省小麦生产的经济效益总体而言较高，但在麦区间和年度间发展不平衡，太湖和丘陵两麦区较差，里下河、沿海、沿江和徐淮四麦区较好。近五年中以1998和2000年较差，而其他三年均较好，同时说明了江苏省近年来小麦生产的风险发生率较高。 3．农场小麦规模化生产的单位面积成本略高于农户，但经济效益各项指标均优于农户，规模化小麦生产是提高小麦生产经济效益的有效途径之一。 4．田间试验结果表明，施氮量与产量呈二次曲线关系，在一定的施氮量范围内，产量和经济效益都随施氮量增加而提高，超过施氮量阈值，增加施氮量，产量和经济效益下降。当施氮量为14.61kg/亩时，小麦生产的经济效益最高，相应产量为430.99kg/亩。对于正常播期的播种量以12万/亩基本苗时，经济效益最高；对晚播小麦的基本苗控制在24万/亩时，经济效益达最高。.扬州大学硕士论文 5.根据江苏省小麦生产的成本投入和产量水平，结合经济理论价格和百元亩效益价格要求，江苏市场小麦目前合理的价格水平应稳定在1 .01元永g以上，且小麦价格的稳定性是小麦生产可持续发展的有力保障。 6.国际、国内小麦供求关系表明，中国加入场丁O后，外麦虽有质量优势，但外麦进口到中国的费用较高，并不具备明显价格优势，且江苏省小麦生产在国内的优势明显，因此对江苏小麦生产只要注意加强科技投入与专用小麦基地建设，推广应用优质新品质，优质栽培技术，提高品质和产量，降低成本，提高效益，主动应对，并凭借科技、交通等优势，是能够不断提高其市场竞争力，外麦的冲击就不会很大。 7.研究分析还认为，要保证江苏小麦生产的供需平衡，单产稳定在目前的水平，则全省小麦种植面积2500万亩是其安全保障线，进一步下调至2000万亩则是安全警界线，特大丰收年，可基本维持供需平衡，灾年则需大量进口小麦满足市场需求。更多还原

【Abstract】 Wheat production cost and profit in six wheat ecological districts and on seven farms of Jiangsu Province in recent five years were investigated. Supply and demand situations and wheat price trends in recent several years were analysed. The main results were as follows.1 . Wheat production cost in Jiangsu Province decreased gradually in recent years. The cost in Xuhuai wheat district was the highest. Among all cost components, the mechanical cost increased gradually, while others reduced. The decrease of fertilizer cost was the greatest. There was a quadratic curve relation between unit cost and yield. The unit cost was the lowest when the yield was about 400 kg / mu.2. Wheat production profits in Jiangsu Province were not the same among different wheat districts and years. Production costs were lower in Taihu and Quling wheat districts, but higher in Lixiahe,Yanjiang ,Yanhai and Xuhuai wheat districts. The costs were lower in 1998 and 2000. Risk incidence of wheat production in Jiangsu Province was higher in recent years.3. The wheat production cost on farms was a little higher than that in family scale, but all the economical indices were superior. So wheat production on a certain scale was one of the effective ways raising wheat production profit.4. The results indicated that the applied nitrogen amount had a quadratic curve relation with grain yield. Yield and profit increased with the amount of nitrogen appliedunder a certain amount of nitrogen. When 14.61kg/mu N was applied, the profit of wheat production was highest, and the yield was 430.99kg/mu. When the number of basic seedlings with normal sowing date was 12*104 per mu, the profit was highest. While under the condition of late sowing, basic seedlings 24*104 per mu could result in the highest profit.5. According to the cost and yield level of wheat production in Jiangsu Province and considering the theory of price and profit demand of 100 yuan/mu, it was reasonable that wheat price in Jiangsu Province should be more than 1.01 yuan/kg at present. And the stability of wheat price was the most important guarantee for sustainable wheat production.6.Although overseas wheat had the quality superiority after China joined in WTO, it did not have significant superiority in price because of the high custom tax and transportation costs. In future, if Jiangsu Province pays more attention to science and technology input and wheat for special uses production base construction, wheat production can constantly raise its market competitive power, and the shock of overseas wheat will not be very strong.7. In order to keep the balance of wheat supply and demand in Jiangsu Province under the grain yield level at present, 25*106mu wheat was the safety line, and 20* 106 mu wheat was the safety boundary line.更多还原