经营性开发项目的投融资区域风险研究

【作者】 钟思均；

【导师】 杨乃定；

【作者基本信息】 西北工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 项目风险是指在项目生命周期内由于各种风险因素的作用导致损失发生的可能性。项目必须置于特定的区域环境中进行，因而肯定要面临项目区域风险的威胁。西部开发项目是置于西部地区特定的经济、政策法律、科技、自然和人文环境之中，这些外部环境因素对开发项目的影响就形成了西部开发项目的区域风险。而其中的项目投融资区域风险是重中之重，原因在于西部项目开发最为重要的就是资金的筹集与运用。鉴于开发项目的不同性质和特点，本文将其分为经营性项目和非经营项目，着重研究经营性开发项目的投融资区域风险。主要研究内容、方法及结论如下： 1、项目投融资区域风险识别。首次定义了西部开发项目区域风险的概念，并在此基础上对西部开发项目的区域风险进行了分类。而后重点识别其中的经营性开发项目的投融资区域风险：通过对经营性开发项目投融资区域风险的概念定义，运用环境分析法，着重从政策法律风险、市场风险、投融资主体结构风险和人才缺乏风险等外部最主要环境风险分析了该区域风险的成因。 2、项目投融资区域风险衡量。首先概要地介绍了衡量项目投融资区域风险的内容与方法，接着研究项目投融资风险评价：通过选取风险变量和评价指标，结合敏感度分析进行风险大小排序，再进一步结合模糊隶属度函数和模糊评价法的运用进行项目投融资区域风险的风险等级判定。最后是基于风险等级判定的结果研究项目投融资的方案决策。 3、项目投融资的区域风险防范与控制。运用系统分析的方法，首先从微观角度论证了建立系统的风险处理体系的必要性和意义，提出了具体的防范和控制措施：在项目内部设立风险管理部门；加强对风险规避策略的系统应用；设立项目投融资风险预警系统等。针对已识别的投融资区域风险，提出了改善项目投融资的政策法律环境和市场环境、实现投资主体多元化和融资渠道多样化、引进和培育高素质专业人才、革新西部人投融资的观念和意识等的具体措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Project risk is defined as a probability of loss occurrence because of various hazards or adverse impacts during the course of project life cycle. Western project exploitation, in fact all project development, must be confronted with the threat of many kinds of regional risks owing to environmental constraint characteristics of the specific area. Hence, the influences of those external environmental risk factors, which include nature, politics, law, economy, science, technology, society and culture, make up the regional risks of western developing project (RRWDP), in which regional investment/financing risk (RIFR) is the most important one. Whereas qualities and characteristics of working developing projects and non-productive ones are different, RIFR of working developing project is emphatically studied in this thesis. Its major contents, methods used and suggestions made are as follows:1. RIFR discernment and distinguishing factors. In the beginning, RRWDP is firstly defined and classified according to disparate standards. Then, RIFR, the most important risk of RRWDP, is studied chiefly on the basis of its definition. Through making use of environment analysis , four primary specific exterior RIFR, political-legal risk, market risk, structure risk of main body, risk of lack of qualified human capital, are analyzed respectively to expatiate upon the main causes of RIFR .2. RIFR assessment. The first section is concerned with a brief description of the content and methods of evaluation. The second section is concerned with RIFR evaluation of actual developing projects: (1) their absolute magnitudes and relative order of four risks based on sensitivity analysis of risk index; and (2) the comprehensive risk grade evaluation of RIFR through integrating fuzzy subordinate function with fuzzy integrative evaluation method. The third section is concerned with decision-making between selective investment or financing plans on the basis of the result of risk grade evaluation.3. RIFR prevention and control (P&C). First, the necessity to establish internal P&C system is demonstrated and some suggestions are made. These include setting up risk management division with a matrix organization structure, strengthening systemic application of several common managing tactics and establishing a warning system to avoid or control RIFR. Next, specific measures are presented in accordance with the four distinguished primary specific exterior RIFR.更多还原