【作者】 刘兴智；

【导师】 李杰；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 工商管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文主要针对我国家电业上市公司，从财务危机预警的角度，利用上市公司公开披露的年报财务信息和数据，运用聚类分析法、判别分析法和主成份分析法等多元统计分析方法，并借助于SPSS统计分析软件，建立多变量预测模型进行企业财务危机预警的实证分析，并对分析结果进行综合分析和评价比较，对实证分析中存在的一些问题进行了总结。此外，还对建立我国企业财务危机预警系统提出了一些建议。本文的研究分析可供国内的上市公司和其他行业及企业参考。本文的主要内容由以下部份组成：引言部分简要介绍了企业财务危机预警的背景及其作用，说明了针对我国家电业上市公司进行财务危机预警的重要性和迫切性。第一章介绍了财务危机和财务危机预警的含义及其作用。第二章介绍了企业财务危机预警的基本思想和方法，包括定性和定量分析两方面，其中定量分析又分为单变量分析和多变量分析。提出了本文进行实证分析的思路和方法。第三章确立了本文实证分析的研究对象和研究样本。第四章建立了企业财务危机预警指标体系，并对部分指标的计算进行了说明。<WP=4>第五章是对现成多变量模型（Z值模型和F分数模型）的应用分析，根据应用结果得出了不能盲目照搬现成模型的结论。第六章是本文的重点部份，运用聚类分析、判别分析、主成份分析等多元统计分析方法，并借助于SPSS统计分析软件，建立适合我国家电业上市公司的财务危机预警多变量模型，并对模型的结果进行了检验和分析。第七章是对我国家电业上市公司财务危机预警分析结果的综合评价，对本文运用多元统计方法进行财务危机预警多变量分析进行总结，并概括了本文与同类其他研究的不同之处。第八章指出我国企业财务危机预警分析中存在的问题和局限。第九章提出了建立我国企业财务危机预警体系的一些对策和建议。最后是结语部份，对全文进行了总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis is focused on early-warning of corporate financial crisis in the listed household electric appliance manufacturers of China. First, financial indexes system is constructed on the basis of open-disclosed annual statements. Second, multivariate statistical analysis methods are used for statistics and analysis, such as cluster, discriminant and principle component analysis, and established multivariate models for the empirical study on early-warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software. Third, comprehensive analysis and assessment are accordingly made then. In addition, I summarized the problems in my study and gave some suggestions over how to establish financial crisis early-warning system for Chinese enterprises. This study and analysis may be regarded as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.The main contents of this thesis are as following:Preface, briefly introduce the background and role of the early-warning of corporate finanacial crisis, describes the importance and imminence of this study for the China’s listed houselold electric appliance manufacturers.Chapter 1 defines financial crisis and early-warning of financial crisis and point out its importance.Chapter 2 indroduces the basic ideas and methods of the early-warning of corporate financial crisis, which is composed of two aspects-qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis includes univariate and multivariate models, my own ideas and methods in empirical study will be brought in as well.<WP=6>Chapter 3, make a practical ananlysis on samples.Chapter 4, establish the financial indexes system of early-warning of financial crisis, and give explaination on the calculation of some indexes.Chapter 5, by the empirical study of ready-made multivariate models (Z-scores model and F-scores model) based on the results of study, conclusion can be made that blindly applying the ready-made model is not practicable.Chapter 6, the main part of this thesis, apply multivariate statistical analysis methods, such as cluster, discriminant, and principle copmponent anlysis, and estanblishes multivariate models for the empirical study on early-warning of financial crisis by using of SPSS statistical software, and make the test and annlysis of the results of established models.Chapter 7, make a comprehensive annlysis and assessments of the early-warning models, and summarize the characteristics of my study in this thesis.Chapter 8, points out the problems and limits in China’s early-warning analysis on financial crisis.Chapter 9, make some suggestions in establishing financial crisis early-warning system for Chinese enterprises.The last part is the conclusion of this thesis.更多还原