【作者】 陈传宣；

【导师】 叶成炯； 刘柱胜；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 工商管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来，我国房地产业高速发展，成为了国民经济的支柱产业，推动和支持了国民经济持续、快速的发展。房地产业又是一种投资大、风险高、回报显著的行业，经济评价及风险分析对房地产项目的开发成功与否至关重要，但是，也存在着不少房地产开发商对房地产开发项目的经济评价方法的应用，对房地产开发的项目风险还缺乏认识，结果造成大量房屋闲置和资金积压，使房地产开发项目没有达到所期望的效益。笔者长期从事房屋建筑方面的管理工作，对房地产开发项目有着浓厚的兴趣。从TS花苑项目策划之初，就参与了该项目的策划工作，并主要负责TS花苑项目策划书中的经济评价及风险分析部分，对TS花苑项目进行经济评价和风险分析。 本文通过对TS花苑项目的相关财务指标进行计算，项目的税前财务内部收益率为21％，大于行业基准利润率15％，项目投资能在3.52年度内收回，财务效益较好，所以本项目在财务上是可行的。运用项目风险管理理论并结合实际情况，对TS花苑项目面临的市场风险、财务风险、经营管理风险等许多风险进行了详细的分析，并通过对项目进行风险分析，提出了控制和防范TS花苑项目风险的对策与措施。 本文的创新之处在于，运用项目风险管理理论对TS花苑进行了系统的、详细的风险分析，并通过对TS项目的经济评价和风险分析，总结出了房地产开发项目控制和防范风险的基本方法。这对房地产开发商树立房地产投资风险意识，正确运用相关理论和方法对投资风险进行分析，找到规避风险或者是将风险减小到最低限度的方法，从而达到开发商所期望的投资报酬，将会起到十分重要的参考作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening-up of our country , real estate has experienced high-speed development and has been the pillar industry of our national economy . It has also given impetus to our national economy and resulted in the continuous and high speed development. Real estate is characterized by capital intensity , high risk and high return . Economic evaluation and risk analyzing have critic impact on the success of real estate project development. Of course, there are some real estate agents who have applied economic evaluation but lack the knowledge of project risk in housing development. This has led to a large number of idle houses and idle-lying funds and finally, real estate investment can’t bring expected profits. I have been engaging in the management of house-building for a long time and greatly interested in the house development project. From the beginning of TS House-Garden hatching, I have been a member in the planning team, mainly in charge of the economic evaluation and risk analyzing about the project.The paper has calculated relevant financial indices. The before tax IRR is 21%, which is higher than the standard rate 15%. The capital outlay can be recouped in 3.52 years, which proves a good financial results. So, the project is feasible in finance. Combining the project risk management theories and the situations, the paper thoroughly analyzed TS House-Garden for its market risk, finance risk and operating management risk. According to the analyses, the paper put forward control and prevention measures to deal with the risks that TS House-Garden may face.Under the project risk management theory, the paper systematically and thoroughly analyzed the risks that TS House-Garden may have. After the economic evaluation and risk analyses about TS, the paper gives some basic measures which can be useful in risk control and prevention in real estate development. This is the innovation of the paper, and I think it’s helpful for the house agents to foster an idea of investment risk. Also ,the basic measures may help them to apply relevant theories and methods to the investment risk analyses to find ways which can minimize the risk and result in the expected investment return.更多还原