【作者】 王夔；

【导师】 丁桑岚；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 环境工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 在可持续发展思想的指导下，人们对经济与环境协调发展模式的探讨不断深入。在总结前人研究成果的基础上，逐渐认识到经济发展与环境保护的关系与化学可逆反应方程式一样是一种动态的平衡，二者之间存在着相互矛盾又相辅相承的关系。经济发展与环境保护之间能够和谐共生的关键在于度的把握：人类的经济活动不可避免地会导致环境的改变，环境的变化也会对经济发展产生反馈作用，并对社会的进步造成难以估量的后果，只有在均衡点上才能达到相互促进和共赢的目的。由于工业的增长是经济发展的推动力，而且经济发展对环境的破坏也主要来自于工业生产过程中的资源投入和污染物的排放。因此，经济与环境关系研究的重心之一是从经济、环境和社会这个整体系统出发，对工业发展的规模、结构、速度和技术水平进行细致的分析，以保证区域环境与社会经济的可持续发展。本文以大邑县为例，对现代社会经济发展与环境的关系作了理论的分析，认为二者之间确实存在矛盾，但从辨证、整体和时空的角度考虑，矛盾本身是有其内在规律的，可以利用该规律来约束矛盾的范围和程度，使经济效益、社会效益与环境效益保持良好的均衡状态。由于定性的研究远远不能满足解决实际问题的需要，所以当前对工业和环境关系的定量研究成为热点。其中较为新颖的方法有可计算一般均衡模型、系统动力学分析方法、绿色投入产出等方法。本文对这些分析方法作了探讨和分析，阐释了自己的认识和评价。在对多种定量研究方法进行分析后，认为北京理工大学环境化学系提出的GHG-2模型具有所需数据较少、计算结果可靠的特点，适合经济欠发达地区工业与环境关系的分析。因此，用该模型对大邑县“九五”期间工业结构与环境效应的关系作了验证，得到的预测结果与实际获取的数据值拟合较好，可以满足规划的要求。 论文按照工业化发展不同阶段所具有的特点，设计了五种工业结构的调整方案，用GHG一2模型预测了大邑县“十五”期末主要工业行业污染物的排放量，并按照一定的原则对不同调整方案的计算结果进行了分析和优选，对该县的整体工业发展模式和布局提出了结论和建议，为大邑县区域环境与社会经济的可持续发展提供了决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Led by the thought of continuable development, experts in many domains are going deep into the research how to deal with the relationship between economics and environment. Founding on studying the result that people did, we gradually know that the relation is similar to the reversible reaction equation of chemistry, which is a kind of dynamic equilibrium. The key that economic development and environmental protection can accrete together is the ratio: The human economic activities will cause inevitably environmental changes. On the contrary, the environmental variety also will produce the feedback function to the economic development, and result in the non-measurable aftermath to the social advance. Just only the ratio being attained in some balanced point, the purpose of promotion mutually may be able to come true.Because the increase of industry gives an impetus to the economic development, and from which the pollutants also come primarily, especially in the process of industry production. So, the one of important researches for the relationships between economy and environment is to analyze meticulous the industry’ scale and construction, the developmental speed, and technical level.For providing the foundational material to the theoretical research and for the local government’ programming and decision-making, we study the reciprocities of economy and environment in the direction of this thinking.This text makes the economy and the environment analyzed by theoretical ways, and thinks that the inconsistency consisted in the relationship has its own orderliness. We could make the best use of orderliness, and make the economic, social and environmental benefits keep on their perfect balance.Because the qualitative researches are far from finding a solution to the actual problems, many experts focus on the quantitative researches. There are some typical methods in modern researches, such as generally balanced model, dynamics analysis method and so on. This text analyzes these methods, and thinks that the model GHG-2 that provided by environment chemistry department of Beijing science and engineering university is a good way to reduce pollution for the underdeveloped area. So we validate the model, and the result can satisfy the request of the general programming.Then according to different stage of industrialization, we design five kinds of adjustive projects and forecast the emission quantity of pollutants .At last, we draw a conclusion and put forward some advice for the mode of the industrial development in Dayi County.更多还原