【作者】 叶伦文；

【导师】 王益谦；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 环境科学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 当前，生态破坏、环境污染逐渐成为区域经济发展的重要制约因素。为了实现区域可持续发展，对区域生态环境与经济发展的协调性和适应性进行评价，对超负荷的区域和区域内的重大生态环境问题做出报警，以便采取必要的措施，调整和改善生态环境结构，环境预警逐渐成为环境科学研究的热点之一。本文力图填补国内关于中小尺度区域环境预警研究的空白，以四川省邛崃市为例，对中小尺度的区域环境预警进行研究，以期将区域环境预警研究推向深入。全文在体系上可以划分为5大部分。 第一部分主要研究了区域环境预警研究的国内外发展现状与方向。针对国内中小尺度区域环境预警研究薄弱的现状，分析其原因，并在此基础上选择研究样本区，确定了研究的内容和框架。 第二部分主要对环境预警研究的成果进行综述和评价。指出了环境预警的研究核心是——区域发展与环境的响应；其重点内容是——区域可持续发展能力(SDA)；分析了环境预警研究的三大焦点及其相互关系。同时对国内主要预警指标体系和模型进行概述和评价。 第三部分主要是对研究区进行定性分析，指出了研究区的生态环境脆弱性和内部差异性的环境特征；并论述了研究区的环境问题的表征和特点，即典型“压缩型”环境污染、农村面源污染突出和城市环境污染的新特点。 第四部分主要以样本区为例建立了区域环境预警和模型。指标体系由生态环境子系统，社会、经济子系统和污染与治理子系统三大子系统共36个指标因子构成，并确定了研究的AHP模型。 第五部分对邛崃市的生态环境现状进行评价，并在此基础上用确定的指标体系和模型预测了邛崃市未来5～10年生态环境演变趋势，得出了按照邛崃市制定的发展“十五”计划和远景规划，在未来5～10年其生态环境将向着良性方向演变的结论，为邓峡市进行环境预警管理提供了决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the destroyed ecosystem and the pollution of the environment gradually become key factors that hinder the development of a region. In order to realize the sustainable development of a region, assessing the coordination and adaptabilities of the regional environment and economic development, early warning the district that have be out of the carrying capacity and the important environmental problems of a region so that people can take essential and pertinence actions, the environmental warning study gradually become one of the hot points in environment science. The paper endeavors to do creative researches on environment warning of the middle and small regions, using Qionglai, Sichuan as researched case, to make the researches in the field to be done more deeply. The paper totally composed of five parts.The first part does research on the status of the early environmental warning home and abroad and analyzes the reason that the study on small-middle dimension environmental warning is done infrequently. The part also presents contents and frameworks of the research and chooses cases studied based on the analysis.In part II, the fruits of the early regional environment-warning’ s studies have been summarized and appraised. The paper pointed out that the cores of the environmental warning are the development of a region and the response to environment, that its important contents are the sustainable development ability (SDA) of a region, and analyzing three focuses in environmental warning and relationship of them. At the same time, the part discusses index systems and models of environmental warning that had been used in china.The third part of the paper is about the qualitative analysis on researched regions and presents characteristics of environmental frangibility and internal diversity in researched regions, and then discusses its distinguishing features: the telescoping environmental pollution, the area-pollution in agriculture and the new features of the environmental pollution in city.Part IV establishes index systems and models of the regional environment warning regarding sample areas. The index systems compose of eco-environmental subsystems, social and economic subsystems, environmental pollution and pollution treatment subsystems, which amount to thirty-six indexes, and choose The Analytic Hierarchy (AHP) model as research model.Part V chiefly studies on eco-environmental evaluation of Qionglai, and forecasts its evolvement in future 5-10 years based given indexes and models, and then presents the fifteen-year plan and longtime layouts made by Qionglai government. Finally, the conclusions that eco-environment is evolving well are drawn, which provide decision-making facts for Qionglai’s the management of environmental warning.更多还原