新田公司摩托车销售预测研究

【作者】 钱晓星；

【导师】 韩玉启；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 工商管理， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 本文在介绍回归分析预测法、时间序列预测法和季节变动预测法等预测方法的基础上，通过大量的计算、比较和分析，为新田公司的几种主要车型找到了各自的预测方法，并且把预测的销售量和最新的销售资料进行比较，从而为新田公司的各主要车型选定了各自合适的预测方法。在此基础上，又用选定的预测方法对新田公司2001年第三、第四季度的销售情况进行了预测，还对新田公司以后的发展方向进行了分析。预测方法的选用和对新田公司2001年第三、第四季度销售情况的预测结果得到了新田公司的认可，对于新田公司发展方向的分析也受到了新田公司的高度重视，从而为新田公司解决了实际工作中因销售量预测不准而导致生产不正常的难题，使新田公司可以轻松地计划未来的生产情况，以便取得最佳的经济效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this thesis,after introducing calculation of regressive analysis, calculation of timeliness sequence and calculation of seasonal variation ,the author tried to find some calculating methods for Xintian Co. Ltd through comparing many kinds of calculating method. After a great deal of calculation, analysis and comparison, the author found the suitable calculating methods for most kinds of Xintian Co. Ltd’s motorcycle respectively. And then, the author tested the calculating method by comparing the result of calculation with the new sales datum, and the author found that the selected calculating method is suitable for Xintian Co. Ltd,and then,using these calculating methods, the author calculated the sales datum of third season and fourth season in 2001. The general manager of Xintian Co. Ltd accepted the author’s result and began to use the calculating methods which the author had promoted. The author was very happy for solving the Xintian Co. Ltd’s problem.更多还原