城市电网可靠性与计划的经济性研究

【作者】 陈晓；

【导师】 王建兴；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 随着社会经济的发展，用户对电力供应可靠性的要求越来越高。一方面用户希望在经济的前提下得到可靠度高的供电，以降低其停电损失；而另一方面，供电部门在提高供电可靠性上受着资金和技术的限制。解决这一矛盾最好的办法就是采用可靠性成本—效益分析法，综合分析供电侧的投资成本和用电侧的停电损失，寻求一最优可靠度，使供用电双方的成本费用为最小。在这一研究中，最难确定的就是系统用户的停电损失。 停电损失反映了供电不可靠的程度，它与可靠性指标有关系，而制定可靠性指标并对其进行定量评估是开展可靠性经济性研究的基础。作为电力系统的重要负荷中心，城市电网配电系统可靠性指标的建立及定量评估有其自身的特点。本文在研究城网系统运行特点以及国内外可靠性指标体系的基础上，确立了城网系统可靠性指标的制定应从用户负荷点和系统这两个方面来考虑，即它们不仅要能反映系统的运行特性，也应当是在用户侧有意义的。 在定量评估负荷点或系统可靠性指标的研究中，本文较全面地分析了各元件故障和元件在线路中的位置以及计划检修、临时停电、天气因素、负荷转移等因素对估算负荷点可靠性指标的影响；研究了现有的可靠性评估模型，结合城市电网的实际运行特点，采用一种综合的方法估算辐射型电网的可靠性指标，算例结果表明它是有效可行的。 停电损失是研究可靠性经济性问题的重点。本文比较深入地论述了停电损失的概念，明确了其分类，分析了影响停电损失的各种因素，论述了过去或现在测定停电损失的方法，以及这些方法的优缺点，确定了利用用户调查法来估算不同用户的停电损失。根据各类用户用电特性、停电特性和经济活动的不同特点，对它们的停电损失作定性及定量的分析，提出了三类(住宅、工业、商业)用户的停电损失估算模型，并设计了调查表，利用调查表对住宅类用户进行实际调查，经过数据处理获得该类用户的停电损失值，验证了调查表的合理性。在深入分析研究国外估算系统及负荷点停电损失的方法的基础上，结合我国实际情况，对估算公式进行了修正，对数据处理过程做了改进。在一定计算条件下，分别采用两种不同的费用模型，对一算例求系统的停电损失，所得结果相近，说明利用这两种模型估算系统停电损失是可行的正确的，然后对它们进行了比较，并提出一种使停电损失的估算具有通用性的新思想。最后，对于停电损失运用于可靠性优化规划，从理论上作了初步探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economy, customers’ demand on the reliability of the power supply become higher and higher. On the one hand, the customers hope for higher reliability with less money to reduce their outage costs; on the other hand, it is difficult for the supply department to enhance the power supply’s reliability because of the limit of money and technology. The best way to solve the problem is to adopt the reliability cost-benefit analysis method which analyze the outage costs of generation side and demand side to find the optimal reliability to reduce the power company and the customer’s costs to the least. During the study of the reliability, it is the most difficult to estimate the system’s user’s outage costs.The outage costs can be regarded as an index to image the unreliability extent and there is the relation between outage costs and reliability index. How to establish the reliability index and how to evaluate it are the basis of the study on the economics of power system reliability. As the important load center of power system, the establishment and evaluation of distribution system’s reliability index has his characteristics. Based on the profound study of the operation of urban-network system, this thesis estimate that the establishment of the reliability index should be considered from two aspects namely load point and the whole system, that is they not only describe the operation characteristics of the system, but also image the characteristics of the interruption to the users.This thesis discussed the affection of all kinds of components contingency and the components’ position in the line and other factors on the evaluation of load point reliability index. This thesis adopts a integrative method to deal with simple or complex distribution network with the system’s practical operation characteristics and the results of the example reveal that it is feasible.The key to study the economics of power system reliability is outage costs. This thesis discusses the conception and classification of the outage costs, and the factors influencing outage costs and the method of outage costs estimation and its advantages and disadvantages are presented, at last customer survey is regarded as a better way to evaluates the outage costs. According to the different characteristics of user’s economic activities and the energy consumption, the thesis gives aquantitative analysis on the users’ outage costs and gives the outage costs estimation model of three kinds of users (residential sector, industrial sector, commercial sector). By design-survey table, residential users are investigated, and the residential users outage costs are estimated. Based on the profound study of the method which is used to estimate the outage costs abroad, the thesis amends the estimation method which makes the estimation more reasonable with the practical situation in our country. Under a certain calculation circumstance, the thesis adopts two different costs models to calculate a example’s outage costs which illuminate that adopting the two models to estimate outage costs is feasible. At last, the outage costs are used on reliability optimization project are theoretically discussed.更多还原