【作者】 师彦武；

【导师】 康绍忠；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 建立水资源开发的水土环境效应评价指标体系，可综合评价人类开发水资源对水土环境的影响程度，考核区域水土环境未来的发展态势。石羊河流域是西北干旱区典型的内陆河流域，近年来人类对水资源的大规模开发，造成严重的生态问题，在整个西北旱区都具有典型的代表性。 本文以石羊河流域为例，对水资源不合理开发引起的区域水土环境效应进行分析，并从水土环境效应的内涵出发，根据水土环境效应各因素之间相互关系的分析，选择相应指标，设计出了能够以水资源为主要控制因素的流域水土环境效应综合评价指标体系。该指标体系是由一个总目标，6个准则，32今指标组成的递阶层次体系。为了达到全面反映水资源开发引起的水土环境效应程度的目的，将总目标分解为水资源承载效应、地表水效应、地下水效应、绿洲及植被效应、土壤盐渍化效应和土地沙漠化效应等6方面来进行描述。 水资源开发利用引起的水土环境效应是复杂多变的，具有模糊属性，用模糊数学中的模糊综合评判对该系统进行综合评估。同时，该系统是一个贫信息系统，具有灰色性质，我们用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度分析方法对系统进行比较分析，使评价结果更具有可靠性和说服力。采用信息熵修正下的层次分析法（AHP）对各评价指标赋以权重值，并且对模糊评判方法的隶属度计算、模糊矩阵合成等进行了探讨。 本文将水土环境效应程度分成5个级别，即：{很强，较强，中等，较弱，很弱}，分别用{Ⅴ，Ⅳ，Ⅲ，Ⅱ，Ⅰ}来表示，评判结果数值越大，水土环境负面效应越大。以该流域70年代环境状况为基础，以流域内行政分区的古浪县、凉州区、金昌市和民勤县近似地代替流域的中上游、中游和下游，进行综合评价。并对它们的优劣程度进行排序，用以分析流域上下游水资源开发引起的环境效应内在联系，制定相应的对策和措施。得出初步结论如下： 1．对石羊河流域各县分区评价 各分效应一级评判结果为： （1）水资源承载效应（P₁）分析。各地区一级评判结果排序为：凉州＜古浪＜金昌＜民勤。 （2）地表水效应（P₂）分析。各地区评判结果排序为：凉州＜古浪＜金昌＜民勤。 （3）地下水效应（P₃）分析。评判结果排序为：古浪＜凉州＜金昌＜民勤。 （4）绿洲及植被效应（P₄）分析。评判结果排序为：凉州＜古浪＜金昌＜民勤。 （5）土壤盐渍化效应（P₅）分析。评判结果排序为：古浪＜凉州＜金昌＜民勤。 （6）土地沙漠化效应（P₆）分析。评判结果排序为：古浪＜金昌＜凉州＜民勤。2旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦些旦旦坦旦旦旦旦旦旦月尽月，........-竺旦旦竺班巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴竺巴巴旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦巴巴巴巴三巴三三里巴巴巴二二二二二巴巴巴里巴巴巴巴里巴巴巴旦旦旦旦旦，，，阅门.坦鱼旦旦旦旦旦旦里巴巴巴巴巴三巴二二二二二二巴巴三巴巴巴巴巴三纽扭旦旦旦旦旦旦旦巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴竺竺旦旦旦旦旦旦 综合考虑以上分析结果，得到石羊河流域各地区水资源开发的水土环境效应综合排序结果为:古浪（11一111）<凉州（111）<金昌（111一IV）<民勤（v） 这个排序结果刚好与石羊河流域的上下游行政分区一致，即从上游到下游，水资源开发所引起的水土环境效应程度迅速增大，尤其在最下游的民勤县，水土环境效应达到很强的程度。2.民勤县水土环境效应动态分析 （l）动态分析。民勤县评判结果表明，在1975一2000年之间水土环境效应程度是持续上升的。75一90年间变化相对较为平缓，90一95年间上升趋势较为剧烈，到2000年上升则相对有所放缓。水土环境总的趋势是不断恶化的。而从各年度模糊评判结果可知，民勤县水土环境效应在1975年时综合评判级别为中等（III）级别;到1980年时，发展到了较强（W）级别，此后的1980一1990年间评判级别都为较强级别;1995年综合评判结果达到了很强（V）级别，2000年在此基础上仍为很强。 （2）趋势拟合。民勤县水资源开发引起的水土环境效应程度，在最近30年来经历了从中等到很强的快速发展过程，并且呈现出持续增长的趋势。用三次多项式拟合法对这个发展趋势进行拟合，并对2000一20巧年的发展状况进行预测。结果表明，未来15年，水土环境状况将会在现有基础上继续恶化，达到极强的程度。如果不加限制，继续大规模开发利用，照此发展速度，民勤县的水土环境将很快达到崩溃的境地。 （3）调水模拟试验。在一系列假设条件下，对民勤县实施调水量为0.6一3.0亿m3的模拟试验，来研究调水后水土环境效应变化情况。试验结果表明，调水量最少达到1.0亿m3时才能使其水土环境不再恶化。水土环境有一个“滞后效应”，要使水土环境向好的方向发展，在1.0亿m3的基础上，还要逐步加大调水量。 石羊河流域是干早区流域的典型代表，灌溉农业较为发达，农业用水占据了绝大部分。目前缺水形势十分严峻，但是水资源浪费巨大，因而发展节水型农业，建立节水型社会是石羊河流域，乃至整个西北干旱区的唯一有效的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 The assessment indicator system of water-soil environmental effect has been established, which can be used to synthetically evaluate the influence degree to water-soil environment of water resources exploited by humanity, and examine its future development trend. Shiyanghe River Basin is a typical inland river basin, which was caused severe ecology problems by human over exploitation. It is a typical representative in whole dry land in Northwest of China.The paper takes the Shiyanghe River Basin as an example, analyses the regional water-soil environmental effect. Based on the analysis of the correlation of each factor of water-soil environment, the correspondent indicator is selected and the synthetic assessment indicator system starting from the connotation of the effect is worked out. The indicator system is a hierarchy system, and it is composed with one general aim, six guideline and thirty-two indicators. To reach the aim of reflecting entirely the degree of the effect, the general aim is decomposed with six aspects, which are water resource carrying capacity effect, surface water resource effect, groundwater resource effect, oasis and vegetation effect, soil salinification effect and land desertification effect. Water-soil environmental effect of water resources development is a complex system, it has fuzzy attribute, and can be synthetically evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive assessment. At the same time, the system is a poor information system with gray attribute, and it can be comparatively analyzed with gray relational assessment, which can make the assessment results more reliable and persuadable. By using the model, each county is evaluated. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was adopted, which supported by information entropy to decide the indicator weight. Some was discussed in the fuzzy synthetic assessment model, emphasizing on constructing the subordinate function and calculating the fuzzy matrix.In the paper, the degree of water-soil environmental effect is divided into five levels, namely, very strong, comparatively strong, middling, comparatively weak, very weak, which are represented by V, IV, III, II, I. The results indicate that the larger the value, the stronger the level of environmental negative effect. Based on the environmental status of the river basin in 1970, the upper reaches, middle and lower reaches in the river basin are evaluated, which are approximatively represented by the Gulang county, Liangzhou borough, Minqin county and Jinchang city. The good or bad degrees of the results are sorted to analyze the inner relation of water development between upper and lower reaches to set down some measures. The main conclusions are showed as follows:1. The Assessment Results in Counties of Shiyanghe River BasinThe assessment results of one grade is:(1) Water Resource Carrying Capacity Effect (P1). The order of assessment results is, Liangzhou < Gulang < Jinchang < Minqin.(2) Surface Water Resource Effect (P2). The order is, Liangzhou < Gulang < Jinchang < Minqin.(3) The Groundwater Effect (P3). Gulang < Liangzhou < Jinchang < Minqin.(4) Oasis and Vegetation Effect (P4). Liangzhou < Gulang < Jinchang < Minqin.(5) Soil Salinification Effect (P5). Gulang < Liangzhou < Jinchang < Minqin.(6) Land Desertification Effect (P6). Gulang < Jinchang < Liangzhou < Minqin. The synthetic assessment result of water-soil environmental effect is obtained after integrated considers analysis results hereinbefore. The order of the result is:Gulang (II~III) < Liangzhou (III) < Jinchang (III~IV) < Minqin (V)The conclusion shows that the environmental negative effect on water resources development is sharply increased from upper reaches to lower reaches, especially in Minqin county, the effect is up to very strong (V). It approximately matches case with practice, which reveals the feasibility of the thought of the models.2. The Dynamic Analyses of Water-Soil Environmental Effect in Minqin County(1) The Dynamic Analyses. The assessment results indicate that更多还原