【作者】 金星；

【导师】 张敏；

【作者基本信息】 新疆农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 当前，从企业风险管理的角度，研究企业财务风险的预警与控制问题，对于推进现代企业制度的建立和完善，保障企业的生存与发展，进而促进我国国民经济的健康持续发展，具有明显现实意义和学术价值。本文在总结国内外有关企业财务风险理论和方法研究文献的基础上，借鉴系统理论和控制理论的思想，运用系统分析和决策分析的方法，提出了研究企业财务风险预警与控制问题的系统分析思维框架，包括企业财务风险生成与传导分析框架、财务风险预警研究框架、以及风险控制体系构成分析框架。基于企业财务风险生存与传导的认识，通过对已有企业财务风险预警模型的比较研究，揭示了这些模型的局限性，针对企业的实际情况，论文以企业经营成果评价为方法和手段，提出了以改进的功效系数法为核心的风险预警模型，同时对该模型在企业风险预警中的应用做了实证研究，最后，论文把财务风险控制的研究作为企业财务风险预警研究的落脚点，在对企业财务风险控制目标分析的基础上，结合风险控制的基本途径，提出了财务风险控制分析框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 Study on financial risk forecast and control in enterprise, from the angle of risk management, has an evidently and academic significance to propelling the foundation and consummation of Modern Enterprise System, ensuring the survival and development of enterprise, and then promoting the sustainable development of national economy at present. On the basis of summarizing the literature of financial risk theory and methods in China as well as in other countries, with the reference on system and control theory, and with the method of systematic analysis and decision analysis, an analyzing framework to study financial risk forecast and control in enterprises was put forward in this paper. The framework includes the following aspects: financial risk formation and conduct analysis, risk forecast analysis, and risk control tactic system analysis. Based on the recognition of financial risk formation and conduct, by studying on forecasting model of financial risk, this paper revealed the limitation of enterprise financial risk forecast model by compare analyzing. Based on the actual conditions enterprise, the paper supposed the new enterprise financial risk forecast with the core of improved method of efficacy coefficient , which based on the assessment of business performance .Meantime, the paper also studied positively the application of enterprise financial risk forecast model . Finally, the study on the tactic of risk control is the aim of financial risk analysis. Based on the analysis of object system and basic method of risk control, the risk control mechanism analysis was put forward.更多还原