【作者】 吴集；

【导师】 虞晓芬；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工业大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 上世纪八十年代中后期日本房地产泡沫使日本经济至今未摆脱负增长的阴影，以及东南亚金融危机爆发起源于房地产泡沫等重大事件的发生激起了国际上研究房地产泡沫的高潮。近年来我省在国家出台一系列鼓励住宅消费拉动内需的利好政策刺激下，房价呈快速上升态势，引发了对是否已出现房地产泡沫的争论，也引起了人们对如何防范房地产泡沫发生的思考。本论文在这样的背景下，在学习借鉴国内外现有研究成果，包括泡沫产生微观机理、度量与检测房地产泡沫的一些方法等基础上，重点对下列问题进行了研究并有创新： 1．从土地供给、房地产开发状况以及房地产市场状况对浙江住宅产业发展现状进行了全面分析。运用因子分析法，对浙江住宅产业目前所处阶段以及景气进行了评价，并且与全国、宁波同时进行对比，初步找出了浙江住宅产业运行的周期性规律。 2．采用多种定量方法研判浙江住宅产业泡沫，研究结果表明从总体来看浙江房价与基本面相协调，但局部地区已呈现泡沫。论文全面分析了浙江房价快速上升的宏观背景与区域背景。 3．论文分析了浙江住宅产业存在的潜在十大风险，指出在市场机制逐步发挥作用条件下，政府应积极利用“有形手”对房地产进行宏观调控，提出有效化解和防范房地产泡沫的六点政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the latter half of the 1980s, Japan’s economy has experienced the emergence, expansion, and bursting of a bubble economy. During the subsequent period of the bursting of the bubble from the early 1990s, Japan experienced a plummet in asset prices, the accumulation of huge nonperforming assets and resulting difficulties faced by financial institutions, and a prolonged recession. We also have seen this type of speculation in the cities of Asia, during the recent Asian financial crisis. With present evidence of strong recent gains in house price that stretch across substantial portions of Zhejiang, accompanied by strong housing construction and the promoting policy of china government, we debate it have been in the real estate price bubble. There are different opinions concerning these problems.The paper are trying to catch up, and searching for the answers. It focuses the studies of micro-mechanism, framework and motheds of measurement about bubble. My innovations on the real estate bubble inthis paper consists of three parts as follows:Firstly, I make a case study on the status quo of Zhejiang’s real estate industry by land supplying, constrution development and market exchanging. Then we analyze the boolclets of real estate industry in Zhejiang with method of principal component analysis, compared with the Nation and Ningbo city. What’s more, we show a phenomenal order of periodic fluctuation in real estate industry.Secondly, we estimate the current levels of price bubble in Zhejiang from several empirical models of property prices that combines fundamental variables with speculative bubbles. The price of real estate coordinated with the macro-economy in Zhejiang, however it has high price bubble in partially. I analyze the reasons of the rapid-promoted price in property of Zhejiang Province.Thirdly, I discuss ten potential risks in real estate industry, with the market- mechanism, and providing six avenues about controlling the bursting of price bubble. Then I analyze the establishment of macro adjustment and policy choice of Zhejiang’s real estate industry in detail.更多还原