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我国港口集装箱运输发展预测研究

The Study on the Forecast of the Port Container Transport Development in China

【作者】 张华勤

【导师】 张庆年; 梁一如;

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 , 交通运输工程, 2002, 硕士

【摘要】 件杂货运输集装箱化是世界运输发展的趋势,在欧美等发达国家的运输体系中集装箱运输占有十分重要的地位,是货物运输的主要方式之一,在地区经济、贸易和物流发展中发挥十分重要的作用。我国自开展国际集装箱运输以来,港口集装箱吞吐量一直保持高速的发展,吞吐量规模不断扩大,沿海和沿江港口大都相继开始从事集装箱运输,到2000年我国港口集装箱吞吐量已达2368万TEU,成为世界集装箱发展最活跃的地区。在集装箱吞吐量迅速提高的拉动下,以8大干线港为基础的集装箱港口布局基本形成,集装箱枢纽港已见雏形,其中上海港2000年以561万TEU列世界第6位,深圳以399万TEU列世界第11位,扭转了大量远洋集装箱境外中转的局面,我国集装箱港口在世界的影响力不断增强。 本文针对我国港口集装箱运输发展的现状和需求,分析了我国港口集装箱运输快速发展及其发展动力,对未来我国港口集装箱吞吐量和集中化趋势进行了预测,对国家如何加快我国枢纽港形成、企业制定适合自身发展的战略提出了建议。本研究主要解决了以下几方面问题: 1、分析了我国集装箱运输发展的国际国内环境和我国港口集装箱运输发展的趋势; 2、采用经济学方法对我国港口集装箱吞吐量进行了预测,并对上海港和连云港港两港集装箱吞吐量进行了具体预测,提出了全国及上海、连云港港口集装箱吞吐量预测值; 3、研究分析了我国港口集装箱快速发展的动力因素,和我国港口集装箱集中化发展趋势及枢纽港发展雏形; 4、提出了我国港口集装箱运输发展预测结论和相应的对策建议措施。为政府有关部门和港航企业决策提供科学依据。

【Abstract】 Containerization is the trend of transport development, and the main way of transport system in the developed countries. It plays an important role in economy, trade and logistics. Since China began container transport, the port throughput has been increasing rapidly, most sea ports and river ports started container business. In 2000, the total container throughput of Chinese ports reached 23.68 millions TEU. Shanghai port is marked sixth in the world with 5.61 millions TEU, Shenzhen port is marked eleventh with 3.99 millions. Along with the fast growth of container transport in China, container ports layout have established upon the eight main hub ports and becomes the most active area of the world container transport. A large amount of transshipment containers are returning to those ports from abroad, and the role of Chinese container ports is more and more important in the world.According to the conditions and needs of container port development in China, this paper analyzes the causes of the rapid development of container transport, predicts the port throughput in the future and trend of container ports concentration, gives the suggestions on how the state speed up hub port and how enterprise makes developing strategy according to its own situation and position. This paper solves some problems as following:1. Analyzing environments and trends of China container ports development.2. predicting container for China especially for Shanghai and Lian Yuangang in more detail.3. Researching the causes of container transport developing, finding the trend of container ports concentration, planning the container hub port.4. Giving the prediction conclusion and suggestions of container port development, it can be used by the state and enterprise for decision makings.

【关键词】 港口集装箱运输发展预测
【Key words】 PortContainer TransportForecast.
  • 【分类号】F552
  • 【被引频次】13
  • 【下载频次】982
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