基于联系数的网络计划技术

【作者】 张清河；

【导师】 张云波；

【作者基本信息】 华侨大学 ， 结构工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 网络计划技术是一种有效的系统分析和优化技术，它成功地应用于军事、航天、工程管理、科学研究等各个领域。然而在许多情况下，估计项目活动持续时间是非常困难的，项目活动时间具有不确定性，联系数是用来处理模糊，随机，中介不确定性的系统理论和方法。采用a+bi+cj型的网络计划方法，既考虑了确定性时间a，同时考虑了不确定时间bi和处理突发事件所需的时间cj。为工程计划的调整和优化提供了更多的信息和更灵活的处理方法。在网络计划实施之前，工序作业时间是未知的，因此，本文提出二种判定工序实现可能性的方法。 方法一：基于集对分析的工序作业时间综合评价法：情况（一）：由若干名领域专家分别估计出工序作业时间的联系数表达式，用综合评判法得出全面考虑各名专家意见的用联系数表达的工序作业时间。情况（二）：编制网络计划时，有时根据工程项目总工期来推求工序作业时间：（f₁～f_n）为工序实际具备的条件，这时可根据领域专家的判断，得出按时完成该工序应具备的条件为（f₁^′～f_n^′），这样（f₁～f_n）与（f₁^′～f_n^′）组成一个集合对子，领域专家可以从同、异、反三方面对两个集合优劣进行评价，从而得出实现该工序的可能性。 方法二：用联系数态势排序方法对工序实现可能性的研究。对影响工序作业时间的若干影响因素（f₁～f_n），可以根据需要将评判结果分为几个级，比如分为{肯定完成，能完成，可能完成，不能完成}四个，那么应采用相应元数的态势排序表，即四元态势排序表；然后运用加权平均法求出工序作业时间的联系数。并将这一联系数与态势排序表相对照，来判断工序作业时间的联系数所处的态势级，从而得出实现该工序的可能性。 本文还介绍了不计评价指标权重值时的综合评价方法，它可以不依赖具体权重值，只要知道权重大小排序，便能利用态势排序表进行系统综合评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 Network planning is an effective system analysis and optimization method. It has been successfully applied in the field of military, aerospace, engineering management, science research and so on. But it is difficult to determine the productive time of a working procedure, there is uncertainty of it. This uncertainty is random, fuzzy and intermediate uncertainty, which can be dealed by connection number method. Certain time, uncertain time bi and unexpected incident time cj are considered in this method. This method provides more useful information and more flexible than the traditional method. Before implementing network planning, productive time of a working procedure is unknown. Therefore, the paper presents two methods which judge the possibilityof a working procedure.Method 1 is based on SPA method of comprehensive judgment.Case(1): Several experts in this field estimate connection number of productive time of a working procedure. Expression of connection number is got by method of comprehensive judgment, which considers every experts suggestion.Case(2): When making network planning, productive time of a working procedure is sometimes estimated based on the whole duration of a project. are the conditions existing in a working procedure. are the conditions which should be met by the view of experts in this field. Therefore and form a pair sets. The probability of a working procedure is obtained by comprehensively evaluation of experts in 3 aspects for a pair sets.Method 2 is the research based on connection number state sort. Factors which influence productive time of a working procedure, can be divided into several grades, four grades in this thesis, that is: {absolutely completion, completion, probable completion, unable completion}. Corresponding elements of state sort table are adopted, that is four elements state sort table. Connection number expression is found by the method of weighted value. Comparing this connection number with state sort table the grade of a working procedure’s connection number is judged, then the possibility of this working procedure is got.This thesis presents also a method, which comprehensive evaluation in case the weighted value of evaluation index is disregarded. By adopting state sort, considering weighted value, unconsidering weighted value of factors, comprehensive evaluation can be done.更多还原