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广东冬季寒害时空分布规律的研究

Studies on the Fluctuation Patterns and Charateristics of Spatial Distribution of the Winter Chilling Damage in Guangdong

【作者】 冯颖竹

【导师】 黄璜; 梁红;

【作者基本信息】 湖南农业大学 , 作物栽培学与耕作学, 2003, 硕士

【摘要】 用广东省22个分布较均匀的代表站1957年12月—2001年2月冬季(12月—2月)逐日平均气温和最低气温资料,对广东省近44年来冬季寒害的发生规律及地域分布特征进行了分析和研究,为广东省冬季农业生产提供科学指导。 讨论和总结了冬季低温给广东主要热带南亚热带作物带来的危害。研究了广东冬季气温的气候变化,认为广东冬季平均气温在具有显著上升趋势的同时,变幅加大。在此基础上,以广东主要热带南亚热带作物的生物学下限温度为依据,从这些作物受寒害的起点温度(环境温度≤5.0℃)出发,提出了寒害过程的概念,并用寒害过程低温的强度(逐日最低气温)X1、低温的持续时间(天数)X2及考虑了低温的强度和持续时间综合作用的物理量负积温X3这3个指标来描述寒害的强度,研究了广东历年冬季寒害的变化,分析了这3个指标间的相关系数,结果表明它们之间互相存在显著的相关关系。 将寒害指标X1、X2、X3序列作主要分量分析,从3个特征向量场中找出了一个物理意义清晰、方差贡献率大(大于75%)的主要分量,将其定义为综合寒害指数。 计算了22个代表站44年的综合寒害指数序列,构成一个综合寒害指数序列的时变矩阵,对该矩阵进行自然正交分解,获得了2个有意义的特征向量场,由此发现广东冬季寒害的地域分布主要有2种型式:整体分布型和南北分布型。 对广东冬季综合寒害指数和广东冬季综合寒害指数第一特征向量的时间系数、第二特征向量的时间系数进行了小波分解。结果发现,广东冬季寒害的整体分布型具有准8年的周期变化;南北分布型具有准22年的周期变化;综合而言,广东冬季寒害具有准8年主要振荡的周期变化。

【Abstract】 In order to provide scientific advice for wintertime agricultural production in Guangdong Province, we analyzed and studied the yearly variations and spatial distribution of the winter chilling damage in Guangdong for the latest 44 years by using mean daily temperature and daily minimum temperature of 22 Meteorological Stations in Guangdong from December, 1957 to February, 2001.The harmfulness caused by the low temperature in wintertime to the main tropic and south subtropic crop and fruit was discussed and summarized. The climatic change of wintertime air temperature in Guangdong was studied. The result shows that while winter mean air temperature in Guangdong has a rising tendency, its range of oscillation is enlarged. Based on those, the concept of chilling process was put forward according to the lowest biologic temperature of main tropic and south sub tropic crop and fruit in Guangdong and the low temperature (environment temperature 5. 0 ) which is harmful to those crop and fruit . With the lowest air temperature (the daily lowest air temperature) X1, the lasting days of low temperature X2 and an integrative physical element --negative accumulated temperature X3 in which the effect of the intense and lasting days of low temperature were considered, the correlation coefficient of those indexes were calculated and analyzed, and the resultsshowed that there are apparent linear correlations among them.PCA of X1, X2and X3 successions was done, and from these three eigenvector fields, a principal component that its physical meaning is clear and its variance deficiency contribution rate is large (over 75 %) is found. And that principal component was defined as an integrative chilling damage index.The integrative chilling damage index successions of 22 representative stations for 44 years were calculated. Let those successions consist of a matrix. Do EOF to the matrix and get two meaningful eigenvector fields, and therefore two main patterns about the spatial distribution of winter chilling damage in Guangdong was found: the whole distribution pattern and the south-north distribution pattern.A wavelet analysis was made to the wintertime integrative chilling damage index, time-coefficients of the first characteristic vector field and the second eigenvector field of wintertime integrative chilling damage index. The results showed that the whole distribution pattern of winter chilling damage in Guangdong had quasi-8 year periodic variation, and the south-north distribution pattern had quasi-22 year periodic variation. Generally speaking, the periodic variation of winter chilling damage in Guangdong had quasi-8 year mainly oscillation.

  • 【分类号】S42
  • 【被引频次】1
  • 【下载频次】204
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