【作者】 何刚；

【导师】 瞿尔仁；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 市政工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 城市交通需求预测是城市交通规划的基础，是确定城市道路交通网络结构布局、容量与主要干道布置沿向的重要依据，其模型与算法的精度水平直接制约着城市交通网络规划的合理程度与科学水平，乃至于会影响到整个城市未来社会经济的发展和人民生活的改善。如何客观、科学地进行交通需求预测，是当前我国城市交通规划中共同面临的课题。论文在系统分析城市交通规划交通需求预测方法研究现状的基础上，针对当前普遍使用的“四阶段”预测方法的不足，较全面地研究了城市交通规划交通需求预测模型。(1)出行生成模型：交通小区通达性和便利程度在很大程度上影响着居民的交通生成量，传统的出行生成预测模型无法反映这一特征。通过引入交通小区的区位系数来反映上述因素的影响，建成一类新型的出行生成预测模型，并将其用于烟台市出行生成分析。(2)广义Logit交通方式划分模型：针对目前常用的Logit交通方式划分模型无法描述交通方式之间效用相关的缺点，通过引用效用相关描述参数的引入，构建成广义Logit交通方式划分模型，并将其用于南昌市现状交通方式划分分析。该模型能够描述交通方式之间的相关特征，提高了交通方式划分预测的精度。(3)混合交通均衡分配模型与算法：机动车与非机动车混合行驶、相互干扰是我国城市道路交通的最大特点，而现有的交通分配技术均无法刻划这一混合作用机制。为此，针对我国城市混合交通的特点，建立了混合交通均衡分配模型与算法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Purpose of transportation is to realize the movement of people and goods. With regards to some shortcomings of the current traffic model splitting methods, by introducing a parameter to describe the utility relationship among traffic modes, a new Generalized Logit (G-Logit) model is developed, which is based on the interpretation of micro-economical mechanism of personal model choice and the theory stochastic utility. Finally ,the features for citizen’s trip of Nanchang is analized by using the G-Logit model.Based on the mechanism of personal trip decision behavior and the definition of socioeconomic potentiality around a traffic zone, a new trip generation forecasting model and its calibration algorithm are developed in this paper. This model demonstrates how the socioeconomic variable, traffic serving level and the socioeconomic variable around traffic zones contributes to the trip generations. Finally, an analysis of the trip generations of Guilin city is also performed, which shows that the model constructed in the paper has excellent accuracy and properties.In this paper, the problem of mixed traffic equilibrium (UE, User’s Equilibrium) assignment is discussed systematically. In the case of the symmetric marginal contributions to link travel times, a corresponding minimum programming model (equaling to the principle of Wardropian Equilibrium) is developed. The equality and uniquesness of the programming model are proved and the algorithm is also derived. When the marginal contributions are asymmetric ,we present a UE searching procedure directly. Finally ,the equilibrium assignment of a simple transportation network which contains vehicle and nonvehicle traffic is analysized.更多还原