【作者】 顾剑华；

【导师】 宋佰谦；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 应用数学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文综合应用经济学、计量经济学、预测与决策学、经济增长理论等多门学科知识，结合广西经济的实际情况，建立起一个在新国民经济核算体系下，以需求为导向的广西宏观计量经济模型 (MPCM)。该模型是以基本建设投资和财政支出为政策性外生变量。之所以这样，是因为我国经济在将来一个较长的时间内仍将处于较强的政策干预阶段，经济的发展方向和增长速度均服从于国家各重要政策。本文运用该模型对广西国民经济的主要指标进行政策模拟，得到2002—2010年广西各主要经济指标预测值，为决策部门进行宏观调控、制定政策提供了较为科学的依据。除此之外，本文还运用一系列非线性函数，对广西宏观经济运行环境进行了有益的探索。 在MPCM模型设计上，本文充分把握了经济变量间相互依存、制约的数量关系，力求把模型做大做精。在经济运行环境的分析方面，主要采用劳动生产率、资本产出率这两个指标和生产函数对科技进步因素进行分析，并运用哈罗德—多马经济增长理论和新经典增长理论探讨广西经济中长期增长的均衡性。更多还原

【Abstract】 By comprehensively applying knowledge of multi-subject such as applied economics, econometrics, forecast and policy-making, and the theories of economic growth, and combining the practical situation of Guangxi economy, this paper establishes a macro model (MPCM) for Guangxi economy, which takes the social demands as baseline and the system of national accounting (SNA) as the structural frame. On considering of the economic situation, under which the economy of our country will be continually located in the phase of powerful policy guidance in a long time, the capital construction investment and government budget expenditure are taken as two exogenous policy variables in the model. In that future time, development direction and speed of the economy will depend in every important national policies. In the paper, the above-mentioned model is applied for a policy simulation for each important economic variable of Guangxi economy, from this research the values of the related variables in 2002-2010 are forecasted, those of them are to provided a found and scientific basis to the policy-making departments to make macro-economy environments advantageously.In constructing MPCM model, the author makes a full prehension on the quantity relations of dependence and restriction between different financial variables so as to make the model larger and most precise. In the analyses on the economic environment, the author mainly uses two indicators, labor productivity and capital productivity, to explore the factor of scientific and technological progress. Meanwhile, the author applies the economic growth theories of Harrod-Domar and the neoclassical economics to explore the balance of medium-length period growth of Guangxi economy.更多还原