【作者】 李春梅；

【导师】 高素华；

【作者基本信息】 中国气象科学研究院 ， 气象学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本论文利用1961-2000年北方半干旱区181个常规气象站的气象资料、《中国水资源公报》资料和有关年鉴资料，分别从我国北方半干旱区气候变化规律和水资源演变规律与利用现状出发，分析了半干旱区水资源短缺的现状和未来更加严峻的形势，指出合理的调整农业结构，提高农业水分利用效率是解决半干旱区水资源短缺，实现水资源可持续利用，减缓干旱化趋势，增加农业抗旱能力的重要途径之一。研究结果表明，近40年来，半干旱区气候有明显变暖的趋势，尤其90年代气温升高明显；大部分地区平均降水量有减少的趋势；未来水分亏缺状况会加剧，尤其是生长季的降蒸差会更大，水分亏缺仍然是限制农业生产的主要因素。半干旱地区地表水资源时空分布不均匀，年内分配差别大，地下水资源年际间变化率不大，但总体有减少的趋势，尤以陕西和山西突出。半干旱地区降水量与水资源量线性相关显著，降水量的变化规律基本上与水资源量的变化规律吻合。根据作物需水的理论和方法，采用计算精度较高的FAO Penman-Monteith方法(1998)计算了半干旱区最大可能蒸散，并基于此计算五种主要旱地作物(春玉米、夏玉米、春小麦、冬小麦、棉花)和不同类型的天然草地的需水量、水分盈亏、水分订正系数等，分析了农田和天然草地水分供需的时空分布规律，结果表明：不同地区同一种作物的需水量是不同的，同一地区对不同作物的水分满足程度是不同的，而且同一种作物在同一地区随着气候的变化需水量也会有一个年际变化；主要作物需水量由东向西，由南向北递增，正常生长发育的水分保证程度由东向西，由南向北递减。大部分地区作物生育期间水分处于亏缺状态，需要通过灌溉补充水分来满足作物正常生长发育需要。因地制宜，在保证粮食自给的基础上，遵循“宜林则林，宜草则草，林草结合”的原则，运用线性规划方法，综合考虑生态、经济和社会效益，以农业水分供需矛盾最小，增加抗御干旱的能力，减少干旱的影响为目的，调整半干旱区农业结构，为水资源的可持续利用和退耕还林还草，改善生态环境提供理论依据和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the base of the data( 1961-2000) from 181 meteorological observation stations and national water resources bulletin, as well as related yearbooks, the current situation of water resources shortage and the severe situation of water resources of future are analysed,and the paper points out that reasonable adjustment of agricultural structure ,enhance water using efficiency of agriculture is one of the important ways to lighten the shortage of water resources,realize the sustainable utilization of water resources,retard drying tendency and increase the anti-drought capability of agriculture. The study results indicate: in the semi-arid region, the climate has a evident warning tendency in recent 40 years, especially in 1990’s,such tendency is more obvious;meanwhile precipitation has a decreasing tendency,water shortage will be more severe in future,especially in growing season,water shortage will still be the main factor to restrict the agricultural production. The space-time distribution of Chinese semi-arid region surface water isn’t even,the differences in a year are obvious; the differences of underground water between years are not so obvious as surface water,but it still has a decreasing tendency,especially in shanxi and sha’anxi provinces.There is a significant linear correlation between the precipitation and water resources in semi-arid region, the dynamic regularity of water resources is basically same as the dynamic regularity of precipitation. Acceding to the theory of crop water requirement, maximum potential evapotranspirations are calculated by applying FAO Penman-Monteith method,and then we obtain the water requirement ,water balance and watercorrection factors ect.of main crops(spring maize,summer maize,spring wheat,winter wheat,cotton)and different type grasslands,and the space-time distribution regularities of water requirement of cropland and natural grassland are analysed,the result show: the water requirements of same kind crop in different areas are different,water satified degrees are different to different crops in the same area,and water requirement of same crop are different between years for climatic variation;the water requirements of main crops are increasing from east to west and from south to north, water satified degrees are decreasing from east to west and from south to north. In growing season, there are deficits in crops water supply in most area,so the irrigation is needed to meet the requirement for crop growing normally. On the base of grain self-sufficiency,following natural laws,such as, the area where is suitable for tree to grow,we plant tree,where suitable for grass to grow we plant grass,or plant both tree and grass. Applying Linear Programming method,synthetically considering ecological benefit,economic benefit and social benefit,regarding minimizing the contradictory between water supply and requirement of agriculture,enhancing the capability of anti-drought,and decreasing the influence of drought as our aims, to provide theoretical bases and scientific methods for adjusting agricultural structure,returning cropland to woodland and grassland ,and utilizing water resources sustainablly,and improving ecological environment in semi-arid region.更多还原