【作者】 潘文荣；

【导师】 漆莉莉；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 应用统计学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 高科技产业在世界范围内迅猛发展，并将在知识经济社会里成为支柱产业，而对高科技产业起促进作用的风险投资业的发展，其重要性日益凸现。风险投资由于高风险的特点使得评价和控制风险显得至关重要。风险投资的风险是指风险资本投资于项目企业而造成损失的可能性。这种损失包括投入资本的损失和预期收益末达到的损失。风险投资的风险源于其资本运营过程中存在的大量不确定性，惟有科学地预见这种不确定性，揭示其风险因素，才能形成科学的风险评价与决策支持系统。 因此，本文从我国风险投资实践出发，对风险投资及其风险评价进行了研究。 本文共分五章。 第一章阐述了风险投资的涵义及它对经济发展的作用。关于风险投资的定义，到目前为止，尚没有统一的定义，本文给出了美国风险投资协会的定义。同时，风险投资作为一种融资方式，具有不同于一般投资的六个特点。最后，本文就风险投资在建立科技创新体系、推动了国民经济增长等六个方面说明了风险投资对经济发展的巨大作用。 第二章介绍了美国、英国、我国台湾地区和我国风险投资的发展模式。到目前为止，在全球风险投资的发展中美国模式最成功，因此，本文重点介绍了美国风险投资的发展模式，它经历了起源、发展、壮大三个阶段。英国风险投资发展的模式与美国没有太大的差别。我国台湾地区风险投资的发展十分成功，它并没有照搬美国风险投资的发展模式，它结合本土的具体情况，风险投资的发展非常成功。我国的风险投资的发展萌芽于二十世纪八十年代。随着我国政策上的扶植及国外资本及民间资本的加入，我国风险投资业正在迎来新的高潮。 第三章主要剖析了美国风险投资的项目评价指标及评价模型。美国在六十年代就对风险投资项目评价指标体系进行了研究，文章给出了美国九十年前后风险评价指标的一些成果。在定性阐述评价指标的基础上，美国Tyebjee和Bruno运用问卷调查和因素分析法得出了美国的风险投资项目评价模型。最后，介绍了美国风险投资的项目评价公式。 第四章是本文的重点，建立了我国风险投资的风险评价指标体系及风险评价模型。首先，我国风险投资必须遵守一定的投资原则，投资原则主要包括明确投资方向、确定投资规模、遵守投资决策三个方面。根据我国风险投资的具体情况，我国风险投资的风险评价指标可分为两大类：系统性风险（也称宏观风险）和非系统性风险（也称微观风险）。系统性风险又可分为社会、政治、经济和其他四个方而的二级指标，对这四个方面的二级指标，又可分为八大类三级指标。非系统性风险又分技术、产品、市场、销售、管理、生产及资金等八个方面的二级指＿标，在这八个二级指标的基础上，又可分为三十四个方面的三级指标。在建立了 、。 g我国风险投资的评价指标体系后，本文使用模糊综合评判来建立风险投资的模型。’。模型建立的关键是确定指标层评语集合及评价权数。确定它们的方法是专家调查法。专家调查法主要包括了专家个人判断法、头脑风暴法和德尔菲法等四种方法。对于它们的介绍及优缺点，本文进行了阐述。在以上基础上，本文建立了分准则层综合评价矩阵、主准则层综合评价矩阵及目标层综合评价矩阵。同时，为使评价更加直观，对评价结果进行了量化。最后，通过对某风险投资项目，本文就已建立的风险投资评价模型进行了演示。 第五章阐述了我国风险投资发展过程中存在的主要问题并提出了发展我国风险投资的政策建议。首先，我国风险投资发展过程中存在着风险资金的总量及来源不足、缺乏成熟运作的风险投资中介机构、缺乏优秀的风险投资家及创业家等五个方面的不足。接着，本文提出了关于发展风险投资可拓宽风险投资的资金来源、尽快建立创业板市场、大力发展风险投资家队伍等五个方面的措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 High-technology industry is rapidly developing in the world wide and will become major industry in the knowledge-economy society.The development of venture capital that plays a great role in high-technology industry is very important.The evaluation and control of risk are crucial to venture capital because of its high risk.The risk of venture capital is the loss possibility that enterprise invested by venture capital brings about.The risk of venture capital stems from lots of indefmition that originates in the operation of venture capital.We need to predict this indefmition and its risk factors and therefore make research on a system of risk evaluation and making decision.Therefore.this paper originating from the demand of venture capital in our country makes research on venture capital and its risk evaluation.This paper consist of five parts.Part one turns to interpret the definition of venture capital and features and the role that venture capital plays in economic development.At first,this paper interprets the definition that stems from American Venture Capital Association.In the meantime,venture capital has six features that are not identical with the general investment.Finally,venture capital plays a great role in such aspects as technical innovation,economic growth and so on.Part two turns to introduce four venture capital styles.American venture capital style is the most successful in the world.Therefore,this paper emphasizes on introducing American venture capital style.England venture capital style is mostly identical with American venture capital’s.Chinese Taiwan district venture capital is very successful.The development of venture capital in our country started in 1980’s.The venture capital in our country is rapidly developing.Part three turns to analyze project risk evaluation indice system and risk evaluation model of American venture capital.Some scientists in America made some research on project evaluation indices in 1960’s.This paper describes some research discoveries before and after 1990’s.In the meantime,this paper introduces the risk evaluation model of venture project.Part four is the main topic of this paper. At first, the venture capital in our country must comply with some investment criteria.They include definiting investment aim, definiting investment scale and complying with investment decision.In our country,the risk evaluation indices of venture capital are divided intosystematic risk indices and non-systematic risk indices.Meanwhile,the former are divided into society,politics,economics and the other’s indices.The later are also divided into technology,product,markeet,management,manufacturing and capital’s indices.Based on the above indices,the twelve second-indices are divided into forty-two third-indices.In the meantime,this paper builds up the model of risk evaluation of the venture capital in our country by using comprehensive vague judgement method.By using expert surveying method,this paper defmites the indices judgement assemble and judgement weight.The expert-surveying methods mainly include Expert individual judging, Brainstorming,Nomina Goup Technique , Delphi Technique and so on.In the meantime,this paper makes the result of judgement quantitative for making it clearer.Finally,this paper illustrates the model through a venture capital project.Part five turns to discuss the main problems of venture capital in our country and put forward some suggests.These problems include lacking venture capital investment,lacking excellent venture investors and so on.These suggests include developing venture investor,setting up venture capital market,tapping the capital resource of venture capital and so on.更多还原