【作者】 陈秀华；

【导师】 杨荣彦；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 会计学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 公布财务预测制度最早起源于英国，演变至今各国对财务预测制度所规范及要求就因国而异，目前全世界主要股市中，仍有强制公开财务预测的已经不多了，台湾为其中之一，台湾自1984年开始讨论规范上市公司公开财务预测制度，但因制度相关规定的时空背景与以往已经大不相同，即使上市上柜公司对于财务预测的规定多有所抱怨，而大多数投资人对管理当局所提供之财务预测亦无法判断其可靠性，但台湾证期会还是坚持财务预测制度的存在，本文旨在探讨财务预测可提供投资人对财务预测的讯息如何做正确的判断，并进一步探讨同一财务预测制度如何因应在各行各业，不同产品特性之行业如何加强提供更正确之消息面能更迅速提供投资人作为参考。 本文在大量研究台湾其它作者之理论文献基础上，印证更新财务预测所产生之信息内涵，并以2001年京元电子及2002年旺宏、合晶、华通等案例，对其发布更新财务预测其股价及交易量之走向与更新之攸关程度，而更新财务预测之门槛及原因如何降低人为操纵及消弭玩弄会计手法的人，在台湾现行法令并未限制上市上柜公司调整财务预测的次数，同时无法要求财务预测的准确性，如何从消极保护投资人转变为积极教育投资人如何判断更新财务预测所涵盖之有用讯息。更多还原

【Abstract】 The system of financial forecast begins in Britain. Today, regulations and requirements of financial forecast vary from one country to another. However, only a few countries in the world still enforce the mandatory financial forecast system for listed companies, and Taiwan is one of them Taiwan has started discussing the regulation of the financial forecast system of listed companies since 1984, though complaints on the system from listed companies keep arising and investors cannot judge the reliability of forecast data announced by the authorities due to the changes in time and space over time, the SFC still insists on the system. This paper thus investigated (l)how investors can make correct judgment of the forecast data;(2)how to apply the system to different businesses; and (3)how businesses can provide correct information to investors efficiently.After reviewing related literature and the information content of financial forecast upgrade, the financial forecast of King Yuan Electronics in 2001 and Macronix, Heching Electronics, and Hwatung Electronics in 2002 are examples of this paper to educate investors;(l) how to reduce speculation and stop people from using accountiug tricks by examining the conrelations between the trend of stock price and transaction volumeand upgrade revealed in the financial forecast upgrade and the threshold and causes of forecast upgrade; and how to change from a passive role into an active role by judging all information covered in the financial forecast upgrade, when there is no law to govern the frequency of financial forecast adjustments and the accuracy of forecast data of listed companies in Taiwan.更多还原