【作者】 刘文芳；

【导师】 白丹；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 环境工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文主要研究南水北调东线工程沿线省市的水价制定及其影响评价，并进行相应的仿真系统的开发。它的研究成果可以为政府决策部门进行决策以及对数据的查询提供便利的操作平台，为南水北调工程的论证和决策提供有力的保证。同时利用水价格的杠杆作用，可以增强东线沿线省市工企业和居民地节水意识，更加有力地促进水资源的可持续发展。 根据本文研究的目的和意义，建立了以系统工程、水价的基本定价理论和投入产出分析为基础的水价系统仿真数学模型。在进行水价的制定时，考虑了以工业承受能力、居民承受能力和投入产出分析为约束条件，建立了以代价最小、收益最大和排污量最小的多目标优化模型，使得水价的制定更加准确、合理。 用水量预测是水价制定的前提和基础，本文在进行水量预测时，采用移动平均法、灰色预测法和BP神经网络进行预测，并对预测结果进行了综合评价，确定出合理的预测结果；采用多元线性回归方法确定工业用水价格弹性和居民生活用水价格弹性指数；采用跨流域调水情况下的边际机会成本方法确定当地的水资源价值；采用主观判断和客观规律相结合的方法对其它一些参数进行了确定。 利用水价仿真系统的数学模型，以Java语言作为底层开发工具开发了东线工程水价系统仿真平台，该平台具有良好的人机交互界面，利用该仿真平台可以模拟在不同条件下水价的计算及其影响因素分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper most studies the water price calculating, impacts evaluation and the corresponding simulation system developing. The research results can provide the operating plat for the data query and the policy decision for the government apartment. And by using the water price’s leverage, the saving-water consciousness can be strengthened for the east-route provinces and cities, and the water resource’s lasting development can be promoted for the local regions.Based on this paper’s objective and meaning, the water price system simulation model that is based on the system engineering, water price theory, input-output analysis is presented. During the water price calculating, this paper takes the industry enduring capacity and the inhabitant enduring capacity as the restriction condition, the least payment, the maximal benefiting and the maximal sewerage quantity as the optimal objective function to form the multi-target optimal model, this can make the water price evaluating more precise and reasonable.Water quantity prediction is the base and premise of water price calculating. This paper uses moving tendency forecasting modeling, GM forecasting modeling and BP neural forecasting modeling to forecast the water requirement of the future, evaluates the forecasting results, and confirms the forecasting results; the industry water price elasticity index and the resident water price elasticity are calculated with the multi-linear regression method; the water resources value is evaluated with the marginal opportunity cost method considering the transferring water, other parameters are evaluated and estimated by using some methods of connecting with objective laws and estimation.The water price system simulation plat is developed with Java language as the basic developing tool, this plat has very good interactive interface. Water price evaluating during the different economic conditions can be simulated by the plat. The factor analysis affecting the water price can be gone on by this plat.更多还原