孤东滩海油田原油外输方案模糊综合评判研究

【作者】 陈玉明；

【导师】 苏敬勤；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 工商管理， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 石油工程投资是一项耗资巨大、回收期长、科技含量高、涉及门类广的重大固定资产投资活动。因此，为降低项目投资风险，提高项目的投资效益，对投资项目作出经济评价是项目可行性研究的重要环节，它为决策层做出科学决策提供了重要参考和技术保证。由于经济评价涉及多方面因素，所以对经济评价一般采用请专家小组进行讨论后给出评判意见的方法进行。为了节省人力物力、并继承专家们的经验，本文试图将模糊数学中的模糊综合评判方法和隶属函数理论与计算机应用结合起来：通过让计算机学习专家们对以往案例的评判资料，从而找到专家们的经验(即各评语的隶属函数)，在此基础上建立起计算机模糊综合评判系统。此系统可对新的项目(或方案)作出类似专家意见的综合评价。 本文详细讨论了建立计算机模糊综合评判系统的方法，并以孤东滩海油田原油外输方案的评判为例，建立了孤东滩海油田原油外输方案的模糊综合评判系统。最后运用该系统评价了一个滩海油田原油外输方案，对评价结果进行了综合分析，并指出了方案的改进方法。 为了方便使用该评判系统，本文用VB语言编写了应用程序。更多还原

【Abstract】 Project investment is an important and comprehensive investment activity for fixed assets, which costs hugely and takes long pay-back period. Making economy evaluation for project is an important link of project feasibility research, because it provides reference and assurance for the science decision. As dealing with many factors, the economy evaluation is a synthetic evaluation, which is always made by a group of experts.To save manpower and material resources, and to inherit the experts’ experience, this paper tried to combine fuzzy synthetic evaluation method and subordinate function theory with the computer application. That is to say, let the computer "learn" the experts’ opinions of several past cases, then it will find the experts’ experience (i.e. the subordinate function of each comment), thus a computer fuzzy synthetic evaluation system will be built up. This system is able to make a fuzzy synthetic evaluation for a new project (or a scheme), similar to the experts’ opinion.This paper has discussed in detail the method of establishing a computer fuzzy synthetic evaluation system, and the evaluation system of foreshore oil transportation schemes has been established as an example. At last, it uses this system to evaluate a scheme, and analyses the evaluation result to point out the improvement method of the scheme.To make the use of this system convenient, a computer program has been written with VB language.更多还原