【作者】 黄永红；

【导师】 刘斌；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 会计学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 本文首先在评述企业持续发展理论的基础上，对上市公司可持续增长的内部和外部影响因素进行了深刻的分析。然后借助美国资深财务学家罗伯特·希金斯和詹姆斯·范霍恩的可持续增长模型，选择我国1994年底以前在上海、深圳证券交易所上市的282家A股上市公司为研究对象，运用均值检验和威尔科克森的数理统计方法检验了我国上市公司1994～2000年度各行业的可持续增长的情况。本文还采用主成份分析法和多元回归的方法，确定和解释了影响我国上市公司可持续增长的主成份因素，并研究上市公司可持续增长与公司营运能力、偿债能力和盈利能力的平衡关系。最后在分析目前我国上市公司可持续增长的现状及其存在的问题的基础上，对上市公司如何保持持续增长提出笔者的一些对策建议。 全文共分五个部份：第一部份介绍了本文的研究意义以及目前国内外对企业可持续增长理论的研究现状；第二部份对企业可持续增长模型进行了简要的评述，并对影响我国上市公司可持续增长的综合因素进行了分析；第三部份对我国上市公司是否实现了可持续增长进行了实证检验；第四部份对我国上市公司可持续增长的主因素进行了实证检验；第五部份对我国上市公司的现状及其存在的问题进行了描述，并提出相应的对策建议。本文研究发现： (1)如果实际销售收入增长率与可持续增长率(SGR)不一致，则往往意味着负债比率的失控，即公司未实现可持续增长。 (2)电子电器行业实现了可持续增长，其余行业均未实现可持续增长。 (3)轻工行业和农业上市公司投资不足，其余行业上市公司投资过度。 (4)公司可持续增长率与资产负债率成反比，与流动比率、速动比率成正比。 (5)上市公司的可持续增长比率与公司盈利能力正相关，即盈利率越高，可持续增长比率也越高。 (6)除商业行业外，其余行业的上市公司可持续增长率与成长能力正相关。 (7)除商业行业外，不论是样本整体还是分行业、分规模，上市公司的可持续增长率均与营运能力正相关。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper introduces the theory of sustainable growth of companies and meanwhile thoroughly analyzes the subjective and objective factors affecting sustainable growth of listed companies in China.Then with the sample of Chinese A-stock listed companies which appear on Stock Exchange of Shanghai and Shenzhen before 1994,using sustainable growth model brought forward by Robert Higgins and James Van Herne and the mathematical statistic methods of means and Wilcoxon.This paper tests the sustainable growth status of all sort of listed companies in China during the period from 1994 to 2000.Meanwhile an empirical analysis is made in this paper by the factor method and regression to find out equilibrium relation among sustainable growth of Chinese listed companies profitability capability of debt-repayment and capability of operation. At last this paper puts forward some advice by examining the present situation and the unsettled problems of sustainable growth of the listed companies in China.This paper includes five parts,In the first part,it introduces the research purpose and the present situation of domestic and overseas,In the second part,it introduces the theory of sustainable growth of companies and analyzes the composite factors of sustainable growth of listed companies in China,In the third part,it tests whether Chinese listed companies realize the sustainable growth or not. In the fourth part,it makes an empirical analysis on the principal components of sustainable growth of listed companies in China,In the fifth part,it describes the present situation and the unsettled problems of sustainable growth of the listed companies in China and put forward some advice. This paper discover:(1)If the growth rate in sales revenue and sustainable growth rate are inconsistent,the asset-debt ratio is out of control. That is,the sustainable growth fails to be fulfilled.(2)The electronic industry has seen the sustainable growth,while the others haven’t.(3)Investment in light industry and agricultural listed companies is inadequate,whereas in others it is excessive.(4)The sustainable growth rate of a listed company is in inverse proportion to asset-debt ratio,but in direct proportion to current debt ratio as well as acid test ration(5)There is a positive correlation between the sustainable growth rate of a listedcompany and its profitability. That’s to say,the higher earning rate,the higher sustainable growth rate.(6)The sustainable growth rate of all listed firms other than those of the commerce industry is positively correlated to the growth capacity.(7)Apart from the commerce industry,there is a positive correlation between the sustainable growth and the operation capability of the listed companies,regardless of their integral sample,industries sample and scale sample.更多还原