中国成长型上市公司内在价值分析的研究

【作者】 顾军；

【导师】 蒋屏；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 工商管理， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国加入WTO，中国的金融业将逐步走向开放，中国股市也将日趋成熟，价值投资将在未来中国股市中占主导地位。本论文的目的是研究在中国股市良莠不齐的上市公司中如何寻找出具有投资价值的成长型企业，供广大投资者作投资决策时的参考。本论文采用实证研究的方法，其主要内容是论证以经济附加值(EVA--- Economic Value Added) 理论为基础推导出的EVA模型在评估投资价值中的实用性，并且将该模型与其它价值评估模型进行比较和分析，并证明该模型可作为一种计算企业价值的新方法，并用于成长型上市公司内在价值的评估。EVA概念的应用近来在美国和西方等国逐渐兴起，通常管理者和投资者采用它作为衡量公司经营状况的指标之一，以及用作奖励管理者工作业绩的度量标准。EVA就是税后营业利润减资金成本后的剩余回报，即税后的营业利润减去债务和权益资本的使用成本后的差额。用公式表示为：EVA=税后净经营利润－加权平均资本成本×（债务资本＋股权资本）经济增加值（EVA）价值模型的理论基础是公司的内在价值等于公司未来的经济增加值折现后再加上公司的投资总额。经济增加值最基本的形式就是公司的剩余收入。也就是说，如果投资人得到的投资回报等于投资人投资的期望收益，公司的剩余收入就等于零，该项投资的价值也就等于该项投资的投资额。如果公司产生经济增加值，那么将公司未来的经济增加值折现后再加上公司的投资总额就应该等于该公司的内在价值。用公式表示为：公司内在价值= 投资资本+未来EVA的现值未来EVA的现值=本论文重点研究了青岛海尔与佛山照明这两家典型的成长型上市公司，将EVA价值模型与其它现金流量贴现模型进行了实证比较，发现股利价值模型与自由现金流量价值模型都存在着未来现金流量波动较大，难以预测的缺点。而经济增加值（EVA）由于不考虑投资的现金流量只考虑投资资金的成本，所以EVA流量不会由于某年的大额投资而造成大的波动，其优点是每年的变化比较平缓，非常便于通过统计分析来预测未来每年EVA的流量。因此，笔者认为EVA价值模型具有良好的可操作性和准确性，可以用于中国上市公司的价值评估，同时该模型也可应用于公司并购和重组中的资产估值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Chinese financial industry will open gradually after China joined the WTO, and the Chinese stock market also will be gradually maturing, the value based investment will occupy the predominant position in the future. This thesis study at the listed company in the Chinese stock market how to look out the growth type enterprise of having the investment value to provide the investor to make decision for investment.EVA evaluation model that this thesis main contents is an argument which is based on Economic Value the Added (EVA) theories, also this thesis compare the EVA evaluation model with other evaluation model, and try to proof that model can be used as a kind of the new method of evaluating the intrinsic value of listed growth type company.The application of the EVA concept recently rise gradually in the United States and the other west countries, the governor and investor adopt it to measure the management performance, and use it as an indicator to repay the manager’s working accomplishment. The Economic Value Added (EVA) is a measure of surplus value created on an investment, namely the difference in amount after the NOPAT (net operating profit after taxes) subtract cost of capital. The formula is:EVA= NOPAT - WACC × (Debt Cost + Cost of Equity)The theories foundation of the EVA evaluation model is that the intrinsic value of a company equal to sum of the discounted future EVA of the company and total investment of the company. EVA is the company’s surplus income. If the returns of investor equal to the expectation income, the surplus income of company will be zero and the value of the investment will equal to the amount of investment. If the company increases EVA, the intrinsic value of a company will equal to sum of the discounted future EVA of the company and total investment of the company. The formula is:Company’s Intrinsic Value = Total Investment + Discounted Future EVADiscounted Future EVA =This thesis studied evaluation of the Qingdaohaier and Foshanzhaoming, two typical growth type listed companies. To compared the EVA evaluation model with other discounted cash flow model, it was discovered that the discounted dividend model and the discounted free cash flow model are all existing the weakness whose the future cash flow is difficult to estimate because of fluctuate of the cash flow. But The Economic Value Added (EVA), because of only considering the cost of<WP=6>investment not the total investment, does not exist exquisite fluctuate, therefore it is very convenient to forecast the future EVA flow by statistic analysis.Therefore, the writer think the EVA evaluation model have good maneuverability and accuracy, and can be used for evaluation of the Chinese listed company, at the same time that model also can apply in capital evaluation in company’s mergers & acquisitions and recapitalization.更多还原