【作者】 次凤敏；

【导师】 杨季美；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 技术经济及管理学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 由于全球经济一体化和信息高速公路的发展，在全球市场占有一席之地的房地产业，国际化趋势日益明显。入世后，中国经济与世界经济联系更加密切，而房地产业的发展与经济发展呈高度的正比例关系，因而，我国的房地产业受国际经济全局和区域变化的影响也会越来越明显。房地产估价业作为我国的一个新兴行业，无论在制度、政策、法规等方面，还是理论方法研究方面，与国外一些发达国家相比还不够完善。因此，加入WTO一方面将促进我国房地产中介行业向国际惯例靠拢，另一方面也将使我国的中介行业受到国外中介机构入住的强烈冲击，面临严峻挑战。鉴于上述背景，笔者认为加强房地产估价理论与方法的研究，将定性与定量、静态与动态分析相结合，对于提高房地产估价业的科技含量，提高我国房地产估价业的国际竞争力，有着理论和实践意义。为此，本文针对目前国内外房地产估价理论与方法的现状，以及我国现有的房地产估价方法在应用中存在的问题，较系统地研究了房地产估价常用的三大估价方法：市场比较法、收益法和成本法的估价方法及其应用的完善，内容包括基于模糊数学的市场比较法、基于灰色预测理论的收益法以及建筑物价值减价修正方法的量化研究。 (1)应用模糊数学的贴近度概念来解决市场比较法应用中的可比实例的科学选择问题，用模糊数学的综合评判法来确定区域因素和个别因素修正系数，最后再次应用贴近度和择近原则较科学地解决了估价结果的合理确定问题。 (2)对收益法中的资本化率内涵进行了剖析，提出了资本化率应是行业基准收益率和机会利率之和，且小于行业内部收益率的观点。由于房地产寿命长久性的特点，决定了其收益年期也较长，因此，本文首次提出了应用灰色预测理论来解决估价对象未来纯收益预测问题的观点，克服了以前常用的线性回归、长期趋势法等预测方法的缺点。 (3)通过考虑时间和物价变动因素，对成本法中旧有房地产估价的折旧方法进行了改进，并应用AHP法来量化影响成新率的各项因素的影响值大小。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the integrating of global economy and the development of information thruway, the real estate, which possesses a territory in global market, is internationalized more and more obviously. With joining in WTO, Chinese economy intimately contact with international economy. For the development of real estate is in high direct proportion with economic development, real estate in our country will be influenced by all and even part of the international economy change more and more obviously. As a new industry, real estate appraisal, is less perfect than some foreign developed country either on system, police, code or on study of theory and approaches. Joining in WTO will accelerate the real estate agency in our country to approach the international routine in one hand, on the other hand it will make our agency to face a serious challenge. AS this, the author thinks that enhancing the study of real estate appraisal theory and technique, connecting the qualitative with quantitative and static state with dynamic analysis, are all in favor of increasing the technological content of real estate appraisal and international competitive power in the academic and practical significance. So in this thesis, I studied three appraisal approaches: market data approach -income approach and cost approach, which are in common use by the numbers through aiming at the domestic and overseas actuality and the questions exited in our present appraisal techniques. The contents of this thesis conclude in market data approach based on fuzzy mathematics, income approach based on grayer forecast theory and the quantitative study of buildings’ value depreciation modify.(1) Firstly applying the notion of appropinquity in fuzzy mathematics to solve the scientific choice of optional instances. Secondly using synthetical judge to confirm the amendatory coefficient of territorial and separate factor. Lastly applying appropinquity and choosing close principle again to rationally confirm the appraisal result.(2) Anatomising the connote of capitalization rate and arising a view that capitalization rate should be the add of industry fiducial return and opportunity interest and less than industry IRR. Based on real estate havinglong life, it has long return life. So there is a firstly advanced view in this thesis that is to use grayer forecast theory to resolve the net return’s forecast of appraisal object. The new technique overcame the defect of other forecast technique such as linear regress and long trend etc.(3) Through taking account of the influences of time and price fluctuant, I mended the old method of discount calculation and used AHP to make the influences quantitative.更多还原