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安徽省小麦主要病害预测及管理系统的研究

Studies on Forecast and Management System of Wheat Major Disease in Anhui

【作者】 齐永霞

【导师】 丁克坚; 张长勤;

【作者基本信息】 安徽农业大学 , 植物病理学, 2002, 硕士

【摘要】 本文对小麦主要病害的诊断、影响小麦纹枯病发生的品种、肥料、农药等因子、小麦纹枯病病情与产量损失及千粒重的关系、小麦纹枯病的预测与防治决策、小麦赤霉病的预测及防治决策等进行了较系统的研究。 比较了我省主栽品种以及当前推广和将要推广的小麦品种对小麦纹枯病的抗(耐)病性差异,结果表明,我省生产栽培的小麦品种对纹枯病的抗(耐)病性差异显著,但无高抗品种,品种抗性类型大致可分为三个等级,即:感病类型,以皖麦38、皖麦19、扬麦5号、扬麦158等为代表;中感类型,以皖麦30等为代表;抗病类型,以豫麦18、豫麦21、宁麦9312等为代表。通过分析,确定了品种抗性参数为目标管理中抗病品种利用的量化指标。 肥料试验表明,在施用一定量N、P肥的基础上,适当增施K肥能减轻小麦纹枯病的发病程度;在施用一定量K、P肥的基础上,随着氮肥施用量的增加,小麦纹枯病病情呈上升趋势;以低K区的K肥校正系数为1,则中K区、高K区的K肥校正系数分别为0.96、0.90;以高N区的N肥校正系数为1,则中N区、低N区的N肥校正系数分别为0.87、0.75。 研究了小麦纹枯病病情指数与产量损失率的关系。结果表明,产量损失率随着病情指数的增加而增大;千粒重随着病情指数的增加呈下降趋势,并在此基础上组建了病情指数与产量损失率的关系模型,病情指数与千粒重的关系模型。 小麦赤霉病的预测预报研究,先根据安徽省各区域的气候特点、地理位置及病害发生情况对麦区进行区划(即分为皖南区、皖中区、皖西南区和皖淮区),然后利用区划中各代表县的历史资料建立数据库,经过多种统计分析方法的筛选优化后,确定采用逐步判别分析法分析气候条件与小麦赤霉病病情的关系。研究结果表明:11月上旬至4月上旬的旬平均温度、旬降雨量与小麦赤霉病病情密切相关,分别组建了皖南区、皖中区、皖淮区和皖西南区小麦赤霉病中长期预测模型和短期预测模型。经回检,皖南区、皖中区、皖西南区和皖淮区中长期预测模型的历史符合率分别为97.83%、89.29%、100%、95.24%。皖南区、皖中区和皖西南区短期预测模型的历史符合率分别为82.76%、77.19%、97.62%;经安徽省植保总站实际预报检验,短期预测的准确率为80%;长期预测的准确率为72.41%。说明模型具有一定的可靠性。 通过田间小区试验,比较了不同药剂与不同施药方法对小麦纹枯病的防治效果,结果表明,单剂拌种以5%适乐丹防效最好,其拔节期防效为72.75%,且持效期长。混剂拌种以 11%复配剂 3号按种重的 0刀2%拌种防效最好,拔节期防效为59.81%;拔节期药剂喷雾的防效以复配剂5号900mlhan‘喷雾的防效最好;药剂不同处理技术对小麦纹枯病的防效以28%复配剂1号按种重的0.04O拌种+复配剂5号拔节期900mlAllll2喷雾+复配剂5号900ml/hlnZ孕穗期喷雾的防效最好,腊熟期防效为79.58%。多种药剂在小麦不同生育阶段的防治试验结果表明,药剂拌种+拔节期喷雾+孕穗期喷雾的药剂防治策略总体控病效果最好,增产效果明显;其次是药剂拌种十拔节期喷雾:对以小麦纹枯病为主的病害在小麦生长期施药的最佳点为拔节期。 利用 Visual Basic 6刀组建了安徽省小麦纹枯病和赤霉病等病害预测及管理系统,系统由病害诊断、预测及防治决策、系统说明等模块组成。病害诊断部分共收集了20多种小麦病害的主要症状描述资料、典型症状的病害图片以及常规的防治方法,病害诊断子系统便于用户直观、准确的判断所发生的病害,以便用户在小麦发病时及时进行处理。预测及防治诀策模块根据用户提供的信息,预测出病害可能发生的严重度、产量损失情况以及是否需要防-治,如果需要防治,采取何种防治方案才能获得最大的经济效益。整个系绞采用菜单提示选择和人机对话方式,使用者只需在合适的运行环境下启动该系统,便可出现主菜单,然后根扼自己的目的,从菜单中选择所要执行的项目或输入必要的信息,即能得到满意的运行效果。本系统的用户界面友好,一切操作均有屏幕汉字提示。系统经过测试,达到了设计要求,能够准确可靠地运行,与传统的人工管理系统相比,具有明显的优越性。

【Abstract】 The diagnosis of wheat major diseases, influence factors such as cultivars, fertilizers, fungicides on wheat sharp eyespot, the relationship between disease index and yield loss, the relationship between disease index and kilograin weight, forecast and controlling decision on wheat sharp eyespot and wheat head scab in Anhui were studied in detail, respectively, and the results were reported in this paper.The resistant(endurant) difference of most commercial cultivars and those would be released in near future to wheat sharp eyespot(Rhizoctonia cerealis) was compared. The results showed that the cultivars tested had significant difference to wheat sharp eyespot, but there were no high-resistant cultivars. According to the results, the resistance of all these cultivars to wheat sharp eyespot could be classified into 3 types. The first was susceptible, including Wangmai 38, Wangmai 19, Yangmai 5, Yangmai 158; the second was mid-susceptible, including Wangmai 30; and the third was resistant, including Yumai 18, Yumai 21, Ningmai 9312.The fertilizer trial indicated that, on the basis of definitely nitrogenous fertilizer and phosphorous fertilizer, increasing potassic fertilizer properly could decrease wheat sharp eyespot; and on the basis of definitely potassic fertilizer and phosphorous fertilizer, the more the nitrogenous fertilizer used, the severer the disease was. Given that the corrected coefficient of low kalium was 1, the corrected coefficients of middle and high kalium were 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Given that the corrected coefficient of high nitrogen was 1, the corrected coefficients of middle and low nitrogen were 0.87 and 0.75, respectively.The relationship between disease index of wheat sharp eyespot and percentage of yield loss was studied. The results showed that the percentage of yield loss rised with the increasing of disease index, and the kilograin weight was the contrary. On the basis of the results mentioned above, the model for disease index and yield loss ratio, disease index and the kilograin weight was established, respectively.In this paper, the forecast for wheat head scab was studied systematically. According to the experts experience and the historical data derived from Xuanzhou, Guangde, Dangtu, Liuan, Feidong, Lujiang, Qianshan, Susong, Fenyang, Yingshang in Anhui, the relationship between meteorological factors and the final severity of wheat head scab were analyzed by means of stepwise discrimination analysis. The results showed that the final severity had closely relation to average temperature often days, rainfall often days in the period from November to April. The mid-long-range forecast models , short-range forecast models for the wheat head scab in south Anhui, middle Anhui, southwest Anhui and the region along Huaihe river in Anhui were set up, respectively. The forecast verification of the mid-long-range corresponding to historical data was 97.83%, 89.29%, 100%, 95.24%, respectively. The forecast verification of the short-range corresponding to historical data was 82.76%, 77.19%, 97.62%, respectively. According to the verifying by General Plant Protection Station of Anhui Province, accuracy of mid-long-range, short-range was 72.41%, 80%, respectively.The control effects of single and mix-fungicides on wheat sharp eyespot were studied in this paper. The results showed that the control effect (CE) of seed treatment by 5%Celest ertra was the best among single-fungicides, the control effect at jointing stage was 72.75%, and the sustained period of CE was the longest. The CE of seed treatment by 11% No.3 mix-fungicides was the best among mix-fungicides, and the CE at jointing stage was 59.81%. The CE of spraying at jointing stage by 20% No.5 mix-fungicides at the dosage of 900ml/hm2 was superior to the CE of spraying by others. The CE of seed treatment by 28% No.l added spraying by 20% No.5 at jointing stage and pre-booting stage was the best in different treatments. The results also showed that seed treatment with 2 times spraying by fungicides(at jointing stage an

  • 【分类号】S431
  • 【被引频次】6
  • 【下载频次】249
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